Ian Reynolds
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From Market Maker to Trend FollowerIn the 66th episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave speaks with Ian Reynolds, Director of Suberia Capital. Ian discusses lessons learned as a market maker in London, the evolution of market structure and technology, managing the mental game of trading, upside for Bitcoin, inflection points for the US Dollar, and why investors need to pay attention to gold. Recorded 9/9/25. |
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Overnight
Economic Indicators Released Overnight
Plenty of data points overnight but nothing that Powell want to see
20 Year US Treasury Auction Goes Gangbusters
Markets can't even wait to see what happens at the FED meeting. USD is lower but Bitcoin is higher, and equities went higher but closed lower. VIX up 4%. Big move is the USD lower yet again.
Dollar falls to four-year low vs euro with Fed rate decision on tap [Reuters]
US Equities
Breaking
Senate Votes to Confirm Trump Pick Stephen Miran to Fed Board [Wall St Journal]
European Commission will slap duties on Israeli goods, Kallas tells Euronews [EuroNews]
Hong Kong to explore boosting tokenised gold trading in city [South ChinaMorning Post]
Bitcoin
Bitcoin tests the recent lows, and neckline, at 114.5k and fails so up we go again. Price structure changes on a close above 117.5k so we’re close now. Rumours/stories of US Govt buying a million Bitcoins is a just a distraction as US doesn’t have the cash. Focus on the 4 year cycle. The big impetus may happen in the next 24 hours.
Commodities
Silver attempts to tag support at the pivot line then moves up leaving a solid wick behind it. $44 still the near target but close and confirmation below $42.20 would likely see $41.60.
Foreign Exchange
Market moving before the FED is a sure sign of positions bailing while they can. DXY just can’t get a bid and next support is 94.10 at the lower end of the trend channel. Double resistance at 98.60 would be a great place to sell but getting there is looking increasing unlikely.
Bonds
Bonds the only thing quiet ahead of the meeting and while there is a small drop in yields across the board, 30 year JGB yields hit support and bounce hard.
Equities
NASDAQ rejected by the top of the uptrend channel. Support is at 21,800 and if it breaks there’s a nice gap down to 21,300. Plenty of talking heads telling us that a big cut is bad for equities and certainly that might be the kneejerk reaction, but we’ll still buyers on dips.
Interesting
Economic Indicators Today
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