Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
Economic Indicators Released Overnight
Some lively numbers from the US suggests that the economic boost of front-running tariffs is over. Poor UK Retail Sales added to the "global economy is slowing" narrative.
Equities continue to grind higher as US money supply increases.
Global Equities
Breaking
Global food prices reach highest level in 18 months [FT]
Sleight of Hand
Trump continues to harass Powell and has been very vocal about the US trade deal with Japan this week.
However this seems to be news for Japan
US, Japan differ on details of tariff deal, with no clear start date [Nikkei Asia]
Trump and lackey Lutnick have been all over CNBC and their rhetoric doesn't ring true. So why do it?
Apart from the very little success Trump has had with all of his ideas, and the fact that the mid-terms are just around the corner, his Administration is struggling with 2 massive issues.
Firstly nothing matters if the USD loses it's Reserve Status and that status must be preserved at all costs, otherwise a default is necessary.
Secondly Epstein. A lot of time and money being spent on something that is supposedly not a problem.
How a Frantic Scouring of the Epstein Files Consumed the Justice Dept. [Ny Times]
Everything else apart from USD and Epstein, is a deliberate distraction.
During an awkward exchange inside the Fed's very much under-construction headquarters, Trump playfully smacked Fed Chair Jay Powell while saying, "I’d love him to lower interest rates." The two also disagreed over how to account for the building project. Trump said it cost $3.1 billion and handed a piece of paper to Powell, who informed him he was counting the cost of a third building that was completed in 2021.
Even Bessent has been lured into the charade;
Give him his due, Trump is good at sleight of hand.
Precious Metals / Commodities
Gold and Silver pulled back into the Friday close in a typical end of week rearguard actions by shorts. Gold actually hasn't moved for 3 months now so we're expecting some action soon.
Without Middle East tensions oil continues to decline, now below support and looking to accelerate lower.
Bitcoin (& Crypto)
Another huge seller of BTC from more than 10 years ago yet price rebounds yet again. For sure this pattern will resolve in the coming week.
CRE / Banks / CLOs
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US regional banks seem to be holding up, according to earnings released to exchanges this week. They are, in general, still increasing loan loss provisions but, currently, it's manageable and they are being pro-active.
United States
US Economic Indicators
Money supply now at record levels and stock markets are benefitting. Despite the FED still rolling treasuries off it's balance sheet. Clearly Treasury injecting liquidity from the General Account is working, holding markets up.
The housing market in the US is patchy, some areas holding up and some doing really badly. Got a feeling that after years of hearing how bad the real estate market is, we're finally going to see it. Check Canada and NZ, with UK moving lower now too.
US M2 Money Supply
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway predicts major housing market shift soon [The Street]
Venmo, PayPal users can now send money to the US government to help pay down $36.7T national debt [NY Post]
US considering removing tax on capital gains on home sales, Trump says [Reuters]
American Airlines warns of surprise loss, Southwest sees ‘depressed’ demand as travel activity waffles [MarketWatch]
China
China Economic Indicators
No rate cut from the PBoC and no other economic data points.
Japan
Japan Economic Indicators
All versions of CPI moving lower now in Japan, but bond yields are still backing up, and the MoF/BoJ urgently need to get reforms through to spread the ownership of JGBs.
The most recent 40‑year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) auction was held on Wednesday, July 23, 2025, with the results released shortly thereafter. This represents the latest known issuance of 40‑year JGBs by Japan’s Ministry of Finance.
Key details from the July 23, 2025 auction:
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It featured security Issue Number 18, with a coupon of 3.1%, an issue date of July 24, 2025, and a maturity date of March 20, 2065.
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Investor demand was notably weak, with a bid‑to‑cover ratio of just 2.127, marking the lowest level in nearly 14 years.
Context and comparison:
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Prior to that, the auction on May 28, 2025 (Issue Number 18) offered similar volume (~¥500 billion) at a yield of 3.135% and bid‑to‑cover ratio around 2.21, the lowest since July 2024.
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That May auction already raised concerns as investor appetite continued to decline amid rising yields and structural fiscal worries .
Europe
EU Economic Indicators
No cut from the ECB but they talked EURO being too high, and how long rates have gone higher.
United Kingdom
UK Economic Indicators
Disappointing Retail Sales and real estate issues. It's a common thread.
Canada
Canada Economic Indicators
Poor Retail Sales and now a real estate problem. The bubble has popped and needs to deflate. China's real estate market has been falling for 4 years and doesn't seem to be stopping. NZ too. And UK and US at the beginning of the cycle.
Australia
Australia Economic Indicators
RBA Minutes
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the cash rate at 3.85% in its July 2025 meeting, as detailed in minutes released on 22 July. While acknowledging that further monetary easing will be needed over time, the majority of Board members opted to pause, citing the risk of acting too quickly—particularly given already having cut rates twice in recent meetings. They emphasised the importance of a cautious, measured approach as inflation remained within the 2–3% target range but the labour market stayed tight.
A minority of members supported a 25 basis point cut, arguing that inflation pressures were moderating and that downside risks to growth, both domestic and global, justified further easing. However, concerns over persistent job vacancies and wage growth contributed to the decision to hold.
The minutes confirmed that further rate cuts are likely, depending on incoming data—especially on inflation and labour conditions. Markets interpreted the tone as dovish overall, with expectations building for a potential rate cut in August, contingent on upcoming inflation figures. The RBA also noted easing global economic tensions, such as the waning impact of U.S. trade policies. Overall, the Board signalled patience while remaining open to more easing if warranted by economic conditions.
Too little too late. The Australian economy is propped up by public spending and a housing bubble. Neither are a permanent feature.
From HSBC in March;
Public demand has been a key driver of Australia’s growth in recent times. Over the past two years, public demand has contributed around 80% of the growth in Australia’s economy and is 28% of real GDP, its highest share in the post-war period.
This trend has been reflected in the labour market, with growth in non-market sector employment driving 76% of all the new job creation over the past two years. Much of the growth in public demand has been due to increased spending on health, aged care and disability care, with boosted infrastructure spending also playing a role.
The rapid expansion of these publicly provided services has been part of the explanation for Australia’s recent poor productivity performance.
We need productivity on the election agenda [HSBC]
Trump administration declares victory after Australia lifts beef ban [Sky News]
What's Next?
BoJ, BoC and FED spiced up with Nonfarm Payroll. No-one expecting any rate moves so maybe that's the outlier. Epstein issue now front and centre as Trump just can't keep it under wraps.
This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]
![This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]](https://vip.suberia.capital/hs-fs/hubfs/27072025/indicators.jpg?width=658&height=830&name=indicators.jpg)
