Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
Economic Indicators Released Overnight
UK economy clearly going backwards now, surely the government can come up with some sort of plan....maybe not.
Market sentiment souring now with rumours of FED Chair Powell resigning on Monday. Again. I know. The White House upped the ante and with CPI coming next week, that Powell will know already, a weaker print, which Truflation supports, could send him over the edge.
Equities retreated but monetary hedges soared led by Bitcoin and Silver, with Gold putting in a solid gain as well.
White House opens new front in attack on Fed chief Jay Powell [FT]
And JPM's Jamie Dimon really opened Pandora's Box
Jamie Dimon warns markets ignoring chance Fed will raise interest rates: ‘Cause for concern’ [New York Post]
US Equities
Breaking
Trump announces 35% tariffs on Canada [Reuters]
Warehouse Vacancies Climb to Highest Level in More Than a Decade [Wall St Journal]
Trump Teases ‘Major Statement’ On Russia As Aerial Attacks On Ukraine Continue [Forbes]
Under Pressure
July 10 (Reuters) - The White House on Thursday launched a fresh attack on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with a top Trump administration official saying Powell had "grossly mismanaged" the central bank, chastising him for running a deficit and for extensive cost overruns for building renovations.
Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought, in a letter addressed to Powell and posted on social media platform X, said: "Instead of attempting to right the Fed's fiscal ship, you have plowed ahead with an ostentatious overhaul of your Washington, D.C., headquarters."
Rumours of Powell Resigning
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Reports from sources like the New York Post say Fed Chair Jerome Powell is “considering resigning” due to mounting pressure over the lavish $2.5 billion renovation of the Federal Reserve’s Washington headquarters.
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These reports appear based on unnamed “internal sources,” not Powell himself, who maintains he plans to serve through May 2026.
Administration Pushback & Calls for Prosecution
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The White House, led by the OMB, formally criticised Powell, accusing him of misleading Congress and mismanaging taxpayer funds.
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Trump appointed allies to the National Capital Planning Commission to launch a probe of the renovation and explore “for cause” grounds for removal.
FHFA CEO William Pulte’s Comments
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Bill Pulte, who oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, publicly stated he’s heard Powell might step down and described it as “the right decision for America”
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He has urged a congressional investigation, alleging “deceptive” testimony about features like marble finishes and rooftop gardens that he says contradict official plans.
What Powell Says
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Powell strongly denies misleading Congress, asserting these luxury features were never part of the final plan.
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He insists he’ll complete his term, but continues to face scrutiny over budget overruns, now ballooning ~30% from the original $1.9B estimate.
Bottom Line
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No official resignation. While rumours circulate, Powell remains committed to finishing his term.
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Political pressure is real. The administration is pushing hard, launching probes and public attacks tied to the renovation.
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Pulte supports an exit. The FHFA chief backs the calls for resignation and investigations.
As the probe progresses and debate over Fed independence intensifies, this story remains fast-moving.
Precious Metals / Commodities
Silver looking to test the immediate resistance at $39 but all bets are on a spike to $50.
Bitcoin (& Crypto)
BTC finally launches for a parabolic rise and blow-off top in September/ October.
CRE / Banks / CLOs
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CEOs Start Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud: AI Will Wipe Out Jobs [Wall St Journal]
United States
US Economic Indicators
Treasury managed to ship 10 year notes and 30 year bonds without a problem, as well as increase future bill issuance without spooking the market. However 10 year yields ended up at 4.40% again.
With the USD 15% lower against other currencies the demand for US paper could be driven by foreign investors.
China
China Economic Indicators
Currency and bonds yields are static in China at the moment but the economy is not improving and yet more stimulus is needed. There are daily rumours of CCP purges and Xi's health issues.
Japan
Japan Economic Indicators
There continue to be contradictory indictions of where Japan's economy is going but the inflation fear by the BoJ/MoF is not manifesting.
!0 year + rates have skyrocketed recently back to pre GFC levels.
Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield Monthly
Europe
EU Economic Indicators
MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) seems to be an unintended consequence of Trump's policies.
More internal alignment, more countries joining, more capital flowing in from the US, subdued inflation and an economy beginning to grow again are the positives.
The negatives are that the EU is only a political framework. Can their leaders take a bold step and reestablish Europe as the world's cultural and economic engine once again?
10 year yields have risen and hitting the inflation target has steadied them.
Germany 10 Year Government Bond Yield Monthly
Crossing two hurdles in one leap: how an EU savings product could boost returns and capital markets [ECB]
Denmark and Finland reject more common EU debt [FT]
Germany's Pension Ponzi Scheme Is Collapsing: What Comes Next [Zerohedge]
United Kingdom
UK Economic Indicators
The strength in the UK economy has proven to be temporary as the government messes around with taxes, convincing no-one that they know what they're talking about. They're in power for a long time.
Those 10 year Gilt yields look under pressure to rise until the UK can find some leadership and fiscal responsibility.
UK 10 Year Government Bond Yield Monthly
Canada
Canada Economic Indicators
Healthy employment numbers with declining wage inflation point in the right direction but 35% tariffs on Canadian exports to the US is going to force some big changes.
Canadian rates are also under pressure to go higher. It will take a stellar performance by Mark Carney to lead the country though the next 4 years of economic change. Luckily he's just the man for the job.
Canada 10 Year Government Bond Yield Monthly
Australia
Australia Economic Indicators
The RBA or it's new acronym RBAACO (Reserve Bank of Australia Always Chickens Out) disappointed markets, population and government once again by holding short rates steady.
The long end is, you guessed it, under pressure with yields looking to break strongly one way or another.
Australia 10 Year Government Bond Yield Monthly
What's Next?
It's US CPI week and surely the confirmation of Powell's job status. Benign inflation and he'll have to resign. Strong inflation and Treasury will have a big problem on their hands.
How the hell did the US get itself into this predicament.
This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]
![This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]](https://vip.suberia.capital/hs-fs/hubfs/13072025/indictors.jpg?width=658&height=430&name=indictors.jpg)
