US Government Shutdown

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Overnight

Economic Indicators Released Friday

Markets was focused on monthly US PCE this week and it came in exactly as expected. Market now starting the question the validity of all US data after massive jobs dislocations (it's Nonfarm Payroll again this week) but inflation numbers so exactly as expected, suggest further political manipulation.

Unsurprisingly the equities train kept rolling.

US Equities

Focus now moving to the potential US Government shutdown, which has crept up on us unnoticed.

Breaking

Entities linked to First Brands file for bankruptcy protection [FT]

Fed’s Bowman calls for decisive rate cuts to address job market fragility [investing.com]

Precious Metals / Commodities

More textbook price action as Gold continues higher, having retested the scene of the crime.

GOLD/USD DAILY

Silver ended the week literally on a parabolic run. Poor price action all week was met with spikes into the daily close. This suggests a big buyer out there, not just for Gold but now for Silver.

SILVER/USD Daily

With Israel/Palestine now in the news, oil prices have edged up but the rectangle holds and Friday's close suggest downside early next week.

SPOT BRENT Daily

Bitcoin (& Crypto)

BTC hanging in there despite the FUD. No price action on the weekend suggests external factors combining with zero momentum is grinding price lower.

BITCOIN/USD Daily

CRE / Banks / CLOs 

Banks would just love a stock market crash now so they can write off bad loans without scrutiny.

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United States

US Economic Indicators

Economic nirvana for Trump/Bessent as non-inflationary growth continues. Markets are sceptical due to manipulation of government data and the endless AI/Chips/Cloud accounting and capex tricks which are eerily reminiscent of Enron, but at a massive scale.

USD and yields have risen with the FED rate cut though and the FED is at the point of implosion as internal division is rising and external frustration reaching breaking point.

DXY Daily

US 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily

China

China Economic Indicators

No data and no rate change. Bond yields continue to rise and stock markets consolidate. The indebtedness of local authorities is fully in focus. 

China 30 Year Government Bond Yield Daily

Europe

EU Economic Indicators

A mixed bunch of PMIs but sharply slower expectations show that the immense geopolitical drama playing out in Europe is hampering any chance of growth. 

EURO backtesting the break higher with stronger USD and stable rates.

EUR/USD Daily

United Kingdom

UK Economic Indicators

Just the PMIs this week, and they were weak.

 Political situation is dire and now citizens revolting at the idea of a mandatory digital ID.

Rumours that the government can't survive, but Gilt yields holding in for the moment.

UK 30 Year Government Bond Yield Daily

Canada

Canada Economic Indicators

A weak economy but luckily no inflation from Average Weekly Earnings. That YoY number was above 5% 6 months ago. Raw materials and industrial PPI were higher but volatile. GDP shows flat economy. At least the Bank of Canada has room to cut and I can't help feeling that rates will go to zero soon.

CAD starting to buckle under the strain of the USD strength this week as USD/CAD looks to break out of the rectangle.

USD/CAD Daily

Australia

Australia Economic Indicators

Hot CPI and lower PMIs are not a good look. RBA has painted itself into a corner by being data dependent. Long rates rose and currency fell against a resurgent USD. Difficult to buck the Stagflationary trend.

Aussie has broken 15 year downtrend and now revisited the scene of the crime.

AUD/USD Daily

Japan

Japan Economic Indicators

More economic weakness and all CPI indicators moving lower. YEN finally seems to be on a weakening trend for now but it's messy.

USD/YEN Daily

What's Next?

All eyes on Nonfarm Payroll on Friday, and UK GDP on Tuesday. Markets being driven by USD so watch for a break down through the 15 year trend. If it happens there will be big repercussions for all assets particularly Gold and Silver.