Limit Up! 4th July 2025

Ian Reynolds July 4, 2025

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Overnight

Economic Indicators Released Overnight

A whole mess of data released yesterday

A big miss for Australia's trade surplus
Higher UK PMIs
NFP higher than expected
Average Hourly Earnings lower than expected
US Unemployment Rate drops to 4.1%

73,000 US government jobs created in June was the element that drove a big surprise in NFP. It's as if Biden's back in charge.

Bond yields and USD spiked on the numbers and then the Big, Beautiful Bill gets passed. With US markets shut for Independence Day today and traders positions squared up, expect a quiet day (except for Bitcoin) and with the trade pause ending on Wednesday we'll be heading to an epic week of volatility.

House passes Big Beautiful Bill, sends it to Trump [Investing.com]

For those of who can't remember what it's about;

President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB), passed by Congress on July 3, 2025, is a sweeping 1,000-page legislative package that reshapes U.S. tax, spending, and social policy. The bill makes permanent the 2017 tax cuts, eliminates taxes on tips and overtime, and raises the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap to $40,000 for most Americans earning under $500,000.

To offset costs, the bill introduces $1.2 trillion in cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, adds work requirements for Medicaid recipients, and reduces green energy incentives. It also allocates $170 billion to border security, including $46.5 billion for a border wall and a significant increase in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) funding.

Critics argue the bill disproportionately benefits the wealthy and could leave nearly 12 million Americans without health coverage. The Congressional Budget Office estimates it will add $2.8 trillion to the national deficit over a decade.

Despite controversy, Trump is set to sign the bill into law on July 4, marking a significant legislative achievement in his second term.

Equities gapped up.

US Equities