Limit Up! 14th July 2025

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Overnight

Good news for Trump/Bessent as a rare budget surplus surprises. Tariff revenue plus cost savings is great but there is Everest to climb.

Here’s the breakdown of the June 2025 U.S. federal budget outcome:

• June 2025 ran a $27 billion surplus—the first monthly surplus since June 2017, when the last one occurred

• Tariffs were the key driver: June tariff revenue reached about $26.6 billion (gross $27.2 billion), more than quadrupling year‑ago levels and marking the highest monthly tariff haul in over a decade

• Spending dropped sharply: Outlays dipped by roughly $187 billion from May, totaling around $499 billion 

• Annual picture remains bleak: Despite June’s upswing, fiscal year‑to‑date (October–June) shows a roughly $1.3 trillion deficit 

• Strategic context: This comes just after the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” was signed on July 4, which includes tax cuts, tariff expansions, and aggressive spending policies

What this means;

• Short-term win, long-term concern: June’s surplus stems from a perfect storm—record tariff income and unusually low spending—rather than structural reform.

• Tariff volatility: As economists warn, these revenue gains may reverse if trade flows respond to punitive tariffs.

• Debt still ballooning: The government’s total debt hovers around $36 trillion, with interest costs of ~$84 billion per month—a steep and growing burden .

• Deficits on autopilot: The FY 2025 deficit is projected at $1.8 trillion or more, meaning occasional monthly surpluses do little to change the broader fiscal trajectory .

In summary: June’s surplus is a temporary anomaly, driven by tariff windfall and delayed spending—while the overall trend remains deep deficits, rising debt, and heavy interest obligations.

• Investopedia
• Reuters
• thetimes.co.uk

Breaking

Hassett says White House probing Fed renovation costs, authority to fire Powell [investing.com]

Trump demands more concessions as EU holds off on US tariff countermeasures [Reuters]

Ownership of Treasuries Has Shifted from Price-Insensitive Investors to Price-Sensitive Investors, Putting Upward Pressure on Yields [Kansas City FED]

Bitcoin

Break higher now confirmed with Head & Shoulders and Cup & Handle targeting 140/150k. A parabolic break will keep price above Bollinger Bands as it is right now.

BITCOIN/USD Daily

Commodities

Gold starting the week on a positive note. Highest ever daily close is 3,450 so we're near.

GOLD/USD Daily

Bonds

Long term (now at 4 years) trend in yields is up. We recently tried to break lower but every time there is good news for US Treasury, yield immediately snaps back to 4.40+.

US 10 Year Treasury Bond Yield Daily

Foreign Exchange

Aussie really close to long term resistance coincides with DXY consolidation. 

AUD/USD Daily

Interesting

Economic Indicators Today