Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
Economic Indicators Released Friday
US CPI came in below expectation, just the kind of number the FED needs to cut rates. Very kind of Trump to release it and not all the others he could release.
Equities jumped and so did Bitcoin
US Equities
Breaking
Japan's Nikkei tops 50,000 mark for first time on stimulus euphoria [Reuters]
US, China Tee Up Sweeping Trade Deal for Trump, Xi to Finish [Bloomberg]
France Gets Fresh Warning on Debt as Moody’s Turns Negative [Bloomberg]
China’s New Strategy for Trump: Punch Hard, Concede Little [Wall St Journal]
Precious Metals / Commodities
Gold is lifeless all of a sudden but we’re still over 4,000. The trend is intact but some consolidation is needed to gather the energy to go higher. Read more
Same as Gold, that’s it for a few months. Would like to buy back our position at $40. That looks a long way off at the moment but you never know. Read more
Price breaking back into the sell zone as geopolitics ruins another good trade! But that’s oil for you. We’re still short and like the position. Small size is the key. Read more
Bitcoin (& Crypto)
A big comeback from Bitcoin as US CPI takes away any hurdles for risk assets to rise. There are some hurdles to jump: 115.3k, 117.1k and then try for 123.3k. Read more
CRE / Banks / CLOs
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CRE continues to blow up capital without markets being concerned. Ditto auto loans. Ditto credit.
United States
US Economic Indicators
The scene is set for a number of FED rate cuts, starting on Wednesday.
China
China Economic Indicators
The Chinese economy is still slowing, house prices falling again but Industrial Production is holding up and more goods head for shores other than the US.
Europe
EU Economic Indicators
For fun I left the number of ECB and Bundesbank speakers in this week. Markets obviously need to be guided lest they make up their own minds and we can't have that. Slightly better PMIs but the decimation of the German manufacturing base is almost complete.
With the FED cutting it'll be interesting to see what the ECB does this week.
United Kingdom
UK Economic Indicators
With CPI heading lower now and strong retail sales, the UK is looking better again. Normally this doesn't last long.
Canada
Canada Economic Indicators
Higher inflation in CPI and higher input prices put the Bank of Canada in a difficult position this week.
USD/CAD breaks trend and revisits the scene of the crime. Nowhere near as much strength as USD/YEN. The triple bottom at 1.3725 was the platform for the push higher. Read more
USD/CAD Daily
Australia
Australia Economic Indicators
AUD/USD is absolutely glued to the 15 year trend line lower. If USD is bottoming as USD/YEN and USD/CAD now suggest, AUD/USD could return below the line and head towards 0.61 which price has visited a few times recently, but has not been below sustainably. Read more
Japan
Japan Economic Indicators
Japanese CPI is sticky but not going higher. The new prime minister is looking to offset the hawks at the BoJ and MoF.
The hammer from 149.40 on 17th October has proved to be the force to get price above trend resistance at 152.40 and confirm. 7 ups days though so expect some consolidation in the near future. Read more
What's Next?
Big central bank week starting with the FED on Wednesday, at which a 25bp cut is a given. ECB and BoC should hold but the really interesting one is the BoJ.
This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]
![This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]](https://vip.suberia.capital/hs-fs/hubfs/27102025/indicatotrs.jpg?width=658&height=738&name=indicatotrs.jpg)
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