Limit Up! 29th May 2025

Ian Reynolds May 28, 2025

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Overnight

Economic Indicators Released Overnight

Higher Australian CPI negates talk of should the RBA have done 50bps cut, for now. German import prices reflect redistribution of Chinese goods earmarked for the US.

FED minutes confirmed FOMC is fixated with inflation and rates on hold for sure, maybe higher next per Kashkari's comment about stagflation yesterday.

US 5 year auction went well confirming that it's the long end in trouble. Very high foreign demand.

Trump implying sanctions on Russia, as he loses control of the Ukraine narrative

Trump's ban on chip software sales to China seems like he forgot to do this 100 days ago!

Japan's 40 year auction didn't go well but it wasn't a trainwreck so panic over for now. MoF implying less issuance helped here but let's see how the meeting with the primary dealers goes. The bid to cover ratio collapsed to 2.2 the lowest demand since July 2024 down sharply from 2.9 at the previous auction.

Japan to sound out JGB dealers June 20, fueling issuance cut talk [Nikkei]

Market tone definitely more cautious now. Risk assets lower.

US Equities

Breaking

Trump orders US chip software companies to stop selling to China [FT]

US vows to use ‘every tool’ in crackdown on international students [FT]

Fitch downgrades Chicago's financial outlook to 'negative' [Chicago Business]

Russia, China, North Korea condemn Trump's $175 billion Golden Dome missile shield [Fox News]

Canada commits to joining European defence plan in throne speech [Global News]

Bitcoin

Momentum has run out and the break below the minor supporting uptrend should see price pull back to 104k and then 94k. When politicians are spruiking it at a convention then you know a local top, at least, is in.

BITCOIN / USD Daily