Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
Economic Indicators Released Overnight
Consumer confidence in the US is waning and reinforcing the retail sales report suggesting the consumer is really struggling now.
That Canadian CPI adds to the "inflation is bottoming" narrative.
Australia Monthly CPI Indicator YoY May 2025
Much lower Australian CPI should convince the RBA to cut rates as well behind the rest of the world.
Powell in front of congress didn't provide any surprises as he paints himself into a corner. Tariffs better be inflationary or he's made a colossal mistake in ignoring Trump and some of his colleague's calls for rate cuts.
Powell: If not for the expectations of higher inflation this year from tariffs, "we would have continued cutting."
Jay Powell pushes back on calls for Federal Reserve rate cuts as soon as July [FT]
Powell Says Higher Inflation Outlook Keeping Fed on Hold for Now [Bloomberg]
Exclusive: Fed should wait on rate cuts with price hikes expected, Bostic says [Reuters]
Markets weren't listening to him and celebrated as equities return to all time high levels.
Breaking
US strikes failed to destroy Iran's nuclear sites, intelligence report says [Reuters]
Japan tariff negotiator arranging seventh US visit, sources say [Reuters]
BOJ hawk Tamura calls for decisive rate hike as inflation increases [investing.com]
Bitcoin
Third pop at the all time highs coming up. Failure should lead to a bigger pullback. Really needs enough energy to get to 125k to start the final phase of this 4 year cycle.
Commodities
So a massive bull trap? OPEC still pumping like crazy as will US: "drill, baby drill".
Silver and Gold off the peaks as markets get risk-on again. Still holding above support and looking to form a base.
Bonds
Breakdown from minor support looking for confirmation although we're still trading a wide range in yield.
US 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
Foreign Exchange
With DXY static, EUR/USD is at the highest level since 2021.
EUR/USD Daily
Equities
NASDAQ gaps up looking to confirm and then test the all time high.
Interesting
Economic Indicators Today
