Limit Up! 28th August 2025

Ian Reynolds August 27, 2025

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Overnight

Economic Indicators Released Overnight

Shock Australia CPI saw Aussie higher

The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2025, released on August 27, 2025, showed a significant rise in inflation:

Annual CPI Inflation: Increased to 2.8% from 1.9% in June, the highest since July 2024.
Underlying Inflation: Trimmed mean rose to 2.7% (from 2.1%), and CPI excluding volatile items (fuel, fruit/vegetables, holiday travel) hit 3.2%.
Monthly Rise: CPI grew by 0.9% in July, exceeding expectations (e.g., Westpac’s 0.5% forecast).
Key Drivers:
- Housing (+3.6%): Led by electricity (+13.0%) due to delayed rebates in NSW/ACT and rental price growth (+4.5%).
- Food/Non-Alcoholic Beverages (+3.0%): Ongoing price pressures.
- Alcohol/Tobacco (+6.5%): Highest contributor, driven by tax impacts.
Context: Inflation is within the RBA’s 2–3% target but near the upper limit, reducing the likelihood of a September rate cut. Energy rebates (e.g., Queensland’s $1,000, WA’s $400) mitigated some rises but were less effective in July.
Limitations: The monthly CPI covers two-thirds of the basket, with full monthly reporting starting November 2025.

Otherwise markets were quiet so equities rose and Bitcoin gained back some of the recent losses.

US Equities

Breaking

US tariffs on India hit 50% as Donald Trump-Narendra Modi ties sour [FT]

Commerce Secretary Lutnick: US GDP Statistics To Be Published On Blockchain [Yahoo! Finance]

Bessent says US tariff revenue could be well over $500 billion a year [Reuters]

Hedge Funds Are Shorting the VIX at a Rate Not Seen Since 2022 [Bloomberg]

Bitcoin

BTC not quite back in the game yet. Needs to get above $113,000 downtrend and $117,500 high.

BITCOIN/USD Daily

Commodities

Gold attempted the breakout. Lots of goldbugs shouting about a $1bn trade in GLD ETF, "dark web" conspiracy. Just an OTC trade because you can't do that volume on an exchange. Interesting though.

GOLD/USD Daily