Ian Reynolds
Breaking: US Infighting Over Texas Border
Trump, RFK Jr side with Texas in border fight with Biden admin as 25 states show support [Fox News]
Breaking: Russia may be open to talks on Ukraine security, sources say
Putin Sends US Signal on Ukraine Talks, Seeing War Advantage [Bloomberg]
Quarterly Refunding Announcement
Make no mistake this week's Quarterly Refunding Announcement [Department of the Treasury] is pivotal to market direction. The auction schedule is due to be released on Wednesday. Last quarter's announcement came as US 10 Year Govt Bond yield hit 5%, along with failed bond auctions and illiquid markets.
In the end Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen knew she couldn't sell many coupons, long dated securities, so she had to bail on the schedule and issue short date bills. It created a massive squeeze in the coupon markets as the market had positioned itself short in order to attempt to absorb the supply. The FED change of narrative helped drive yields a massive 125bps lower.
What happens Wednesday / Thursday could be massive because the FED is rearranging it's liquidity tools.
- Reverse Repo Facility Winding Down
- Federal Reserve Board announces the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11 [FED]
- Quantitative Tightening program finishing
The result of these changes is (in order)
- No more borrower of last resort for a market awash in cash
- No more opportunity for banks to unload treasuries worth 80% at 100%
- FED's balance sheet has been reduced as far as it's going to be. No more bond sales or roll-offs by FED.
The result of all this is unknown. Clearly the Treasury want to be able to sell long dated securities so we can conclude that sufficient liquidity will be maintained by the FED to allow this to happen in an orderly fashion.
Any mistake could be catastrophic.
Chinese Stock Markets in Focus
China wants domestic investors to stop buying so much foreign stock [Business Insider]
China is reportedly all over the current World Economic Forum trying to generate investment in it's stock markets and economy.
Rates unchanged but reserve requirements reduced. It'll take more than encouraging banks to lend, to prop up Chinese stock markets as the wealth destruction continues.
The Hang Seng Index above at a critical level.
China to Cut Bank Reserve Ratio in Bid to Boost Growth, Markets [Bloomberg]
The meteoric rise in the Japanese stock markets may be a result of capital flight from within China.
In The Background
US Economy
US inflation is still slowly coming down still whilst the US consumer is propping up GDP despite record credit card debt and buy-now-pay-later funding.
There is also a slew of company layoffs, as corporate America lets go of staff that had been hoarded over COVID.
Also as inflation comes down, it reduces the previous net profit margin boost companies have enjoyed being able to pass on higher prices to consumers. So now they need to cut fat to make up for shrinking margins.
US and UK launch new strikes at Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen [FT]
In Case You Missed It
Japan
Rates unchanged and markets unsure whether Ueda's presser was hawkish or not.
Trade figures seem very volatile globally currently. Up or down 5% or more every month annualised shows that global trade has fallen dramatically and previously small changes are of greater consequence now.
Tokyo CPI falling is definitely not part of the Bank of Japan's plan. Higher but stable inflation has been the goal for 30 years and it seems that yet again it's unobtainable.
BOJ keeps ultra-low rates, dovish stance unchanged; trims inflation outlook [investing.com]
EBC keeps rates unchanged
Presser 25 January 2024
WEF leaders pressed on how they will 'Trump-proof their economies' if he wins election [Fox News]
Australia
RBA told us stage three tax change won’t fuel inflation [AFR]
This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]
