Ian Reynolds
Overnight
Friday's Economic Reports
A quiet Friday after a busy week. Michigan surveys support US PPI and CPY earlier in the week: inflation is ticking up but the economy is tanking. Powell's worst dilemma and here he is to tell us all about it on Wednesday.
Trump still positioning himself to control the FED despite Powell clearly going to cut, means he thinks US debt situation getting beyond any hope.
Trump admin requests emergency ruling for Lisa Cook’s fed board removal [NY Post]
The three unlikely looking superheroes have our attention this week, but their attention will be fully on the results of their actions. Equities and bonds in particular will be sensitive to policy errors, political interference and debt implications. As if.
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Breaking
Precious Metals / Commodities
I’d love to see consolidation and price revert to the scene of the crime at 3,500 but looks like forming an aggressive bull flag. 4,000 is top of channel. Gold, Silver and Bitcoin all beginning to get sucked upwards as monetary hedges are the only game in town. Big rates cuts are a distraction. Stick with the secular move.
Silver breaks the pivot line having bust out of the aggressive and short-lived bull flag. Monthly chart suggests 48k as reasonable target. Bullion banks, central banks watching the once in a generation price action. Didn’t see any intervention action at Friday close so game on to push this higher. Price should confirm above 41.80 with all those wicks above the pivot line.
Small head and shoulders forming below where a lot of chop has been for the last year. We’re looking for much lower price as US economy tanks pulling the world into recession/deflation. It’s been tough keeping the short position as geopolitics spikes price. That’s built in now, OPEC ramping output pushing US frackers out of business. Small positions are the only way to trade this thing.
Bitcoin (& Crypto)
Inverse head and shoulders slingshot to 150k now in play. Confirmation higher than 117.5k then short consolidation before 125k. Everything now lining up: FED big cut, QE or similar as CRE smash up becomes mainstream. Below 108k negates but only temporarily.
US Senate Bill Proposes To Treat Tokenized Stocks As Securities [Yahoo! Finance]
CRE / Banks / CLOs
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CRE finally in the limelight as banks write-downs start to appear.
JPMorgan, Fifth Third Among Banks Facing Tricolor Losses [Bloomberg]
A major subprime auto lender just went belly up. It won’t be like subprime mortgage lenders sparking the Great Recession [CNN]
United States
A major subprime auto lender just went belly up. It won’t be like subprime mortgage lenders sparking the Great Recession [CNN]
US Economic Indicators
Excellent auction take-ups shows investors scrambling for yield as expectations of a dramatic downturn in the US economy gathers pace. CPI results seem to be fudged as well as employment numbers but for the time being US Treasuries get inflows.
Executive Summary: US Treasury 10-Year Note Auction - September 10, 2025
The US Treasury auctioned $39 billion in 10-year notes (reopening of the August 15, 2035 maturity, with a 9-year 11-month remaining term) on September 10, 2025, amid a dovish Federal Reserve outlook and weaker economic data signalling slower growth.The auction demonstrated strong demand, with key metrics outperforming recent sales and contributing to a decline in market yields.
Key Auction Results:
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High Yield: 4.033% (down from 4.255% in August)
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Bid-to-Cover Ratio: 2.65 (higher than August's 2.35, July's 2.61, and the recent average of 2.6).
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Indirect Bidders (including foreign central banks): 83.1% of competitive awards (second-highest on record, well above August's 64.2% and the 70% average)
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Other Metrics: Median yield at 3.986%, low yield at 3.900%, and 81.53% allotted at the high yield. Total tenders reached $103.35 billion, with primary dealers taking just 4.2% of accepted bids, reflecting robust non-dealer participation
Demand was robust, building on a strong $58 billion three-year note auction earlier in the week and contrasting with weaker results in prior months.
The high indirect bidder share highlighted international interest, potentially bolstered by expectations of Fed rate cuts. Post-auction, the 10-year Treasury yield fell over 3 basis points to 4.042%, influenced by the strong results and a surprise drop in wholesale prices.
Fed set to lower interest rates despite rising inflation [FT]
China
China Economic Indicators
Declining rate of export and import growth, and deflationary pressures keep the tone definitely negative. Equity markets don't agree as the hot money continues to flow in.
Hang Seng Daily
Japan
Japan Economic Indicators
Hit the Brakes: Slowdown in Japan Auto Exports to the United States [Nippon]
All the volatility of the YEN carry trade seems to have disappeared as the Nikkei heads towards the moon.
Nikkei 225 Daily
Europe
EU Economic Indicators
Lagarde Has Traders Betting That ECB Rate Cuts Are Over [Bloomberg]
The second break of trend, after AUD/USD, but we haven't confirmed yet. Whether FED cuts 25bps, 50bps or more, surely EU wont match the cut or the rate of further cuts. Popular FX belief is that currency differentials don't work anymore. We will be able to judge that on Wednesday.
United Kingdom
UK Economic Indicators
GDP zero is not good news. Government is under immense pressure but no-one's going to cut them any slack for their disastrous policies. Apparently they can't fill junior ministerial roles as there's no hope of them being in power beyond Christmas. No-one wants to go down with the sinking ship.
UK imposes 100 new sanctions targeting Russia’s shadow fleet, war suppliers [investing.com]
UK 30 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
Long Gilt yields banging on support for the third time in three months. Looks to be at breaking point.
Canada
Canada Economic Indicators
Repo market strains return as Bank of Canada winds down QT [Canada Mortgage Trends]
Canada 30 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
30 year rates plummeting as Canada's economy tanks. The ironic thing is that it's the weakness in the US economy pushing Canada to the brink.
Australia
Australia Economic Indicators
Consumer sentiment came in a lot lower than expected. A realisation in Australia that no longer can it exist in geopolitical and economic isolation. The realities of immigration come home to bite.
‘End it now’: BCA urges PM to kill off company tax speculation [AFR]
‘Wall of money’ set to hit Australia from private equity [AFR]
Banks face down RBA credit card changes, warning they will charge more [AFR]
Major Australian gas project extended until 2070 [BBC]
A$ first to break ranks as it smashes trough the 15 year downtrend.
What's Next?
All eyes on Powell but Japan's monetary policy decision on Friday will be the most interesting.
This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]
![This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]](https://vip.suberia.capital/hs-fs/hubfs/14092025/indicators.jpg?width=658&height=566&name=indicators.jpg)
