Ian Reynolds
US Consumer in Trouble
Short & Caught
Almost every single economist, commentator and financial influencer has been talking a global recession. As usual, after they've talked their position, us traders know everyone's short.
Short and caught
If there were longs still in the markets, or money on the side, the first days trading of the new year, would have seen pretty lively selling.
But nothing, then almost immediately a big spike higher in all risk assets, aided by US CPI showing inflation seeming to wane, and consequently the USD lower.
Bear market rallies are brutal. They are quick to respond to wrong positions and will go way higher than you think they can. Higher than you can remain solvent.
In Case You Missed It
US CPI Confirms Inflation Trending Lower
Big Banks Set Aside Billions as They Brace for a Downturn
The country’s largest lenders increased their reserves to protect against deteriorating economic conditions this year, after reporting resilient profits for the end of last year.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/13/business/bank-of-america-wells-fargo-earnings.html
Australian CPI
Key statistics from ABS
CPI YoY rose 7.3% in the twelve months to November.
RBA's favourite inflation measure: trimmed mean, rose at an annual pace of 5.6% in November picking up from 5.4% in October.
US To Hit Debt Ceiling One Week From Today
Awesome clickbait from Zerohedge but I do think this is going to become an enduring problem for markets in 2023. US 31,400,000,000,000 of debt
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-hit-debt-ceiling-one-week-today-starting-countdown-epic-chaos
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS THIS WEEK
All economic indictors: https://suberia.capital/economic-indicators-by-country
