Ian Reynolds
Overnight
UK CPI, PPI December 2024
US CPI December 2024
CPI in a few countries has come in at, or lower than expected in the last week or so. Today UK and US did the same. But only lower than expected by a statistical rounding in the US so let's say - as expected, no worse than we thought it could be.
This revelation caused a big relief rally in government bonds, equities, Bitcoin, precious metals etc. But the upward trend in the USD and US yields hasn't changed. Probably US equities have the biggest danger of rolling over.
Breaking
German economy shrinks for second consecutive year [FT]
Vanke’s Prolonged Halt Highlights China Hurdles Joining MSCI [Bloomberg]
China's Central Bank Pumps Near-Historic Level of Cash Into Financial System [Bloomberg]
Indonesia Surprises With Rate Cut, Intervenes in FX Market [Bloomberg]
Yen Rallies as BOJ’s Ueda Fuels January Rate Hike Speculation [Bloomberg]
Foreign Exchange
USD was down but not out.
DXY Daily
Equities
NASDAQ having broken the downtrend, and then retraced to the scene of the crime, looks vulnerable to a further correction.
NASDAQ Daily
Bonds
A big rally in bonds, but in the context of the larger channel we're still looking at the middle of the channel which is the dreaded 5%.
US 10 Year Govt Bond Yield Daily
Precious Metals
Gold and Silver looking to break out of their short-term wedge patterns.
Silver / USD Daily
Gold / USD Daily
Crypto
BTC grabbed all the headlines as usual. The red support goes back to 2021(see lower chart). Price has spiked but needs to get to the all time high again soon.
Trump apparently sees Bitcoin as a new measure of how well people, and to some extent companies, are doing. Adding to his view that the US is going well if the stock market is up. Rumour is he'd like to see BTC at 150k.
Bitcoin / USD Daily
Bitcoin / USD Daily
Commercial Real Estate
|
|
 |
Economic Indicators Today
