Ian Reynolds
Links
Daily LinkedIn | Weekly LinkedIn | Check out the website
Overnight
Markets are settling for now but don't expect them not to go down as we're still waiting for something to happen
US equities lower overnight as tariffs hopes were not realised.
US Equities
Breaking
Yesterday's weak Yuan fix above 7.20 has lead to a big slide in the Offshore Yuan as investors try to get their money out of China. As the currency is pegged, this is a much bigger move than maybe the charts reflect.
USD / OFFSHORE YUAN Daily
There are a number of narratives now contributing to the uncertainty
- The administration's upcoming tax bill (likely in May) will include a provision bringing back the 30% foreign withholding tax on interest income that was eliminated in 1984. This would apply to US Treasuries.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent flew to Florida on Sunday to advise President Trump to shift his focus towards negotiating favorable trade deals to prevent further stock market declines, according to two sources.
- FED may think this has nothing to do with them but it will be when liquidity becomes an issue
- China is dumping massive amount of US treasuries to push interest rates higher
Equities
NASDAQ on it's way to longer term support from the COVID low.
NASDAQ Daily
Bitcoin
Lower again and grinding into the 70/75k support
BITCOIN / USD Daily
Commodities
Oil on it's way much lower. Minor support and then a flush down to low twenties. This is what Trump wants isn't it?
BRENT OIL FUTURES Daily
Bonds
Very scary reversal on THE most important chart. That hammer is telling us the downtrend may get broken. A move up to 5% would be truly catastrophic for markets right now.
US 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
Foreign Exchange
The USD has been stable amongst the carnage, but it's the wrecking ball and lower USD with higher rates is not at all good. Remember the market always goes in the direction of most pain.
DXY Daily
Economic Indicators Today
