Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
Economic Indicators Released Overnight
Continuing and Initial Claims continue to edge up but its the GDP (slight revision) and GDP Price Index that confirms the FED ain't gonna cut any time soon. Watch for a black swan inflation print which moves the direction to hiking.
All of which was very interesting until we got headlines such as
Court Of International Trade rules Liberation Day tariffs were illegal..."PRESIDENT DOES NOT HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO UNILATERALLY IMPOSE TARIFFS".
which pushed US indices up 2% plus until, after much speculation, markets realised Trump would get it done one way or another...
US court blocks Trump's sweeping tariffs, citing overreach of authority [Reuters]
Trump tariffs reinstated by appeals court for now [CNBC]
All of which left markets only slightly positive on the day.
US Equities
Breaking
Fed Might Not Cut Rates This Year, Goldman's Kaplan Says [Bloomberg]
Bitcoin
More and more buzz about quantum computing and the end of Bitcoin. Has given an extended market the opportunity to consolidate and we're looking for a move down to 94k, which would shake out some weak longs.
BITCOIN / USD Daily
Commodities
Gold was off a lot at one stage but rallied into the close. Looking to break that downtrend soon.
GOLD / USD Daily
Bonds
A very messy 10 year JGB chart. Rates pushing higher following the blow outs of 20, 30 & 40 year yields.
Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
Foreign Exchange
USD / YEN and JGBs all over the place recently but view from the moon is that MoF / BoJ too weak to dictate anything and that markets always go in the direction of most pain which would be 10 year plus rates significantly higher and USD / YEN a lot lower.
USD / YEN Daily
Equities
Fascinating that tariffs off didn't get the market higher than it did. It will be difficult to get back to the ATH without a real reason for that to happen, and it won't be the FED helping out there.
S&P 500 Daily
Interesting
Trump’s Air Force One deal with Qatar not final, despite U.S. claims [Washington Post]
Economic Indicators Today
