Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
Economic Indicators Released Overnight
Markets mixed after a poor 10 year note auction, even more tariff uncertainty and Trump messing with the FED again.
Oil dropped as OPEC ramps up output again.
OPEC+ to Boost Oil Output in September: Oil ETFs Under Pressure [TradingView]
Auction Overview (August 6, 2025)
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The U.S. Treasury sold $42 billion of new 10‑year notes.
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The bonds were issued at a yield of 4.255%, slightly higher than expected, signalling soft demand.
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Primary dealers absorbed 16.2% of the issue—the highest share in a year, further reflecting weaker-than-usual investor appetite.
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The result triggered a modest increase in broader 10‑year yields, which traded around 4.24% after the auction.
US Equities
Breaking
Trump Slaps 100% Duty on Imported Chips but Promises Exemptions [Wall St Journal]
Japan not to be exempt from extra reciprocal tariff: White House [Japan Wire]
Trump hits India with extra 25% tariff for Russia oil purchases [FT]
Bitcoin
BTC still negative despite price higher in the last few days. $116,500 and $120,000 are the levels to overcome, and a close below $111,800 might see price test $100,000.
Commodities
Shorts have had a very hard time trading oil and now we have broken lower looking for $67.10, $62.70 and $59.10. Below this is a void.
Foreign Exchange
DXY very short term, we made a higher high and need a higher low to keep any momentum higher. Trouble is it's looking like a dead cat bounce.
Equities
S&P and NASDAQ determined to hug the top of the uptrend channel. It's the safe play at the moment as rates/inflation/Govt data hog the headlines.
Bonds
Like so may markets Aussie 10 year yields in a horizontal wedge, constraining yield between 4.20 to 4.50%. Maybe RBA next week will give global markets direction.
Australia 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
Interesting
Thousands of company directors leave UK after Labour’s tax changes [FT]
Economic Indicators Today
