Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
Economic Indicators Released Overnight
With Initial Jobless Claims and Nonfarm Payroll removed, traders didn't know what to do so they didn't do anything. Retail helped stock markets by the close and non-sovereign assets were yet again, the flavour of the day.
In Australia:
- Exports Decline: Total goods exports dropped 7.8% MoM to approximately A$43.5 billion (estimated), with notable weakness in iron ore (-12% due to lower volumes and prices), coal (-5%), and natural gas (-3%). Key markets like China and Japan saw reduced shipments amid global economic slowdown concerns.
- Imports Rise: Goods imports increased 2.6% to around A$41.7 billion, fueled by higher capital goods (machinery up 4%) and consumer goods (electronics up 3%), reflecting domestic demand recovery post-rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Services Trade: Not reported monthly; quarterly data from June 2025 showed a services surplus of A$5.2 billion, contributing to the overall goods-and-services balance.
Wall Street closes with records as tech support offsets labor, shutdown uncertainties [Reuters]
US Equities
Breaking
Israeli military stops nearly all boats in aid flotilla, sparking global protests [Reuters]
Treasury Secretary Bessent says U.S. GDP could take a hit from the government shutdown [CNBC]
US government shutdown negative for credit rating, Europe's Scope warns [Reuters]
Bitcoin
Price structure is now not negative, it’s neutral. Only a new all time high close above 123.3k pushes structure into positive territory. Read more
Commodities
Looks like we’re going to confirm below support but oil being a very fickle market, expect a retrace to the scene of the crime at $66.15. Read more
Foreign Exchange
With DXY stable to negative in the last week, USD/CAD has been pushing higher. Stagnant economy in Canada (certain) and strong economy in US (questionable) is driving the Loonie lower. Read more
Equities
Back in the wedge for the final time. Yesterday’s close suggests upside pressure may prevail. Looking for a strong impulse to end the week, leading to a 5% gain at around 24,000 in the coming weeks. Read more
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Interesting
Economic Indicators Today
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