Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
Economic Indicators Released Overnight
Bank of Japan keeps rates unchanged
Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2025)
Bank of Japan slashes growth forecasts on tariff fears [FT]
US Initial Jobless Claims came in significantly above the weekly average, but not alarmingly so. Nonfarm Payroll today will be the real employment gauge and average hourly earnings will be closely watched.
Mr Bessent tells us of the Ukraine minerals agreement. Whether you think the agreement is good for Ukraine/US/Europe /Russia /The World, it's definitely a game changer for peace in Europe.
And equity markets are moderately positive.
US Equities
Breaking
US Treasury Looks to Revamp Buyback Program After Recent Tumult [Bloomberg]
Russia's relations with Europe will be restored sooner or later — Putin [Tass]
Trump says any country that buys oil from Iran will not be allowed to do any business with U.S. [CNBC]
Commodities
Gold's correction continues and we're looking to start buying bullion again at 3,135 / 3,070
GOLD / USD Daily
Gold Tumbles On Near-Record Chinese Liquidations [Zerohedge]
SPOT BRENT was down nearly 3% at just below $60 before Trump's statement about buying from Iran turned that around. Look for more downside as the likelihood of Trump's threat wanes and a better level to short becomes available.
Bitcoin
A breakup in BTC looks for a run at 100k but it won't be quick as there's plenty of resistance to chew through.
BITCOIN / USD Daily
Equities
A shooting star on the NASDAQ as the upward momentum and good news starts to fade. Microsoft blowoff results that kept markets up yesterday is old news.
NASDAQ COMPOSITE Daily
Bonds
JGB yields fell with the BoJ's guidance and USD / YEN reclaims 145.00.
Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
Foreign Exchange
The USD breaks the short term consolidation and heads higher. We're surprised at the lack of buyers with the recent 10% discount.
DXY Daily
Interesting
Economic Indicators Today
