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Overnight

China Purchasing Managers Index May 2025

Over the weekend China PMIs pretty much unchanged and news of escalation of Ukraine's attacks deep into Russia.

This morning brings speculative news that Jerome Powell might resign on Monday (as if). He's speaking at the Federal Reserve Board’s International Finance Division 75th Anniversary Conference, Washington, D.C.

Treasury Secretary Bessent was on the wires complaining that China has broken the 90 day plan agreement, whatever that might be. Being quizzed on prime time TV about a possible US debt default probably meant he needed a distracting headline.

US Equity Futures

Breaking

Ukraine stages audacious attack on airfields deep in Russian territory [FT]

Treasury secretary Scott Bessent insists US will ‘never default’ on its debt [FT]

BOJ long-term government bond holdings fall for first time since 2008 [Reuters]

Bitcoin

BTC surging Monday morning maybe on the Powell rumour. 

BITCOIN / USD Daily

Commodities

Gold magnetised to the declining trend line looks to break soon. Maybe we'll have to wait for NFP on Friday.

GOLD / USD Daily

Bonds

Big rally in treasuries on Friday as PCE came in lower than expected and the trade deficit halved. 

US 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily

Foreign Exchange

USD / YEN consolidating below the neckline. BoJ holdings of JGBs declining for the first time in 17 years is big news as maybe finally MoF / BoJ address the financialisation of Japan's capital markets. Timing a bit suspect as just had a couple of shocker JGB auctions. Or maybe the auctions failed because BoJ stopped buying.

USD / YEN Daily

Equities

S&P consolidation builds a hammer so looks like we'll try to break higher and have a go at the ATH at 6,150. Failure to confirm above 5,975 and break 5,770 very bearish.

S&P 500 Daily

Interesting

Economic Indicators Today