Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
Economic Indicators Released Overnight
Markets were mixed to positive as positions were squared ahead of Liberation Day today. Europe's CPI was slightly lower and Australia kept interest rates unchanged.
Whatever happens today, and let's hope it is today, markets are looking for certainty, not of outcome but of strategy. Markets are experts at pricing the most complex situation but the rules have to be consistent.
More flip-flopping, and Trump is to blame here, and markets will continue lower really quickly.
World Equities
Breaking
China launches large-scale military exercises around Taiwan [FT]
Israel eliminates remaining tariffs on US goods ahead of Trump move [Reuters]
Bitcoin
Big short-covering rally. A break of 87k and we're back to 92k. I don't have the impression that BTC is coiled ready to explode higher, as the enthusiasts like to say. There has been a heap of good news but bad price action. Granted tech stocks are contributing to this equation.
BITCOIN / USD Daily
Commodities
Has Gold reached a short-term top? When you read headlines like below you know the dumb money is in. And the price action seems to be confirming it. Would a shock move back to the lower bound of the uptrend channel (2,800), create a massive shock for "investors". I'm betting it would.
Gold soars to $5000 in ‘once in 40-year gift’ for investors, fundies [AFR]
GOLD / USD Daily
Equities
The bounce in US equities hasn't helped the Nikkei which is sitting on the uptrend since COVID ie. all the money printing.
NIKKEI 225 Daily
Bonds
Consolidation in a wedge, in a head and shoulders, in an uptrend channel. UST10s are coiled to go one way hard.
US 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
Foreign Exchange
USD / YEN break down from bear flag as it rolls down the shoulder. Japan aligning itself with China and South Korea has added an extra red flag to the dire economic mix that is Japan. Something will give soon.
USD / YEN Daily
Interesting
Where’s the gold? Germany’s conservatives sound the alarm over reserves in the US [Politico]
Economic Indicators Today
