Limit Up! 21st August 2025

Written by Ian Reynolds | Aug 20, 2025 11:33:14 PM

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Overnight

Japan Trade Balance July 2025

Tariff related drop in Japanese exports, but a whopping 7.5% YoY decline in imports paints a picture of an economy that's slowing still.

UK CPI July 2025

Press says higher than expected which it was, but BoE cutting anyway. The actual number is way too high so let's hope The Old Lady has set her strategy correctly. Time will tell.

EU CPI July 2025

Germany PPI July 2025

Bang on target CPI for Europe but German PPI, following that Industrial Production shocker, tells us no price pressures coming to Europe soon. Will ECB follow FED in cutting?

China interest rates unchanged, as PBoC told us earlier in the week.

US 20 year bond auction

The U.S. 20-year Treasury bond auction held on August 20, 2025, had the following results based on available information:

High Yield: 4.876%, slightly below the when-issued (WI) yield of 4.877%, stopping through by 0.1 basis points.
Bid-to-Cover Ratio: 2.54, indicating solid but not exceptional demand, as it was above the average of 2.3 but below the typical 2.63 for 20-year bond auctions.
Allocation:
- Indirect Bidders: 60.64%, showing strong global confidence, though below the average of 67.6%.
- Direct Bidders: 26.47%, above the average of 18.3%.
- Primary Dealers: 12.88%, slightly below the average of 14.1%, suggesting dealers took on less than usual.
Amount Sold: $16 billion, with 44.44% of bids awarded at the high yield.

Overall, the auction was described as decent, with stable demand amid 2025 uncertainties. The yield was marginally lower than the market at the bidding deadline, and markets showed minimal reaction, with the 10-year yield slightly declining post-auction, indicating stability. However, some noted softer demand compared to historical averages, reflecting caution due to fiscal concerns.

The US Bureau of Labour Statistics will release the jobs benchmark revision on Sept 9, resetting the March 2025 payrolls level. Last September, the BLS revised down Nonfarm Payrolls by 818k, the largest negative revision since 2009, and prompted the Fed to cut 50. The FOMC is Sept 17

Breaking

Fed’s Cook Says She Won’t Be Bullied Into Stepping Down [Bloomberg]

Exclusive: China considering yuan-backed stablecoins to boost global currency usage, sources say [Reuters]

Bessent bets on stablecoins to bolster demand for Treasuries [FT]

US tech slide extends into second day as concerns over AI rally rise [FT]

Trump urges Fed’s Cook to quit after mortgage fraud allegation [AFR]

Australia, US mull critical minerals price support to combat China [AFR]

Bitcoin

Possible inverse head and shoulders, but price struggling to stay above neckline and has rallied back to resistance.

BITCOIN/USD Daily

Commodities

Textbook bounce from support brings us to the big move triggered by Mr Powell tomorrow.

GOLD/USD Daily

Foreign Exchange

Break down and back to the scene of the crime for the second time on USD/CAD.

USD/CAD Daily

Bonds

Short-term 10 year Chinese yield seems to have bottomed, and breaking higher. Economy still tanking but no rate cuts has markets thinking PBoC doesn't know what it's doing.

China 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily

Equities

Price pierced support but buyers stepped in to save the day.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE Daily

Economic Indicators Today

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