Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
Japan Trade Balance July 2025
Tariff related drop in Japanese exports, but a whopping 7.5% YoY decline in imports paints a picture of an economy that's slowing still.
UK CPI July 2025
Press says higher than expected which it was, but BoE cutting anyway. The actual number is way too high so let's hope The Old Lady has set her strategy correctly. Time will tell.
EU CPI July 2025
Germany PPI July 2025
Bang on target CPI for Europe but German PPI, following that Industrial Production shocker, tells us no price pressures coming to Europe soon. Will ECB follow FED in cutting?
China interest rates unchanged, as PBoC told us earlier in the week.
US 20 year bond auction
- High Yield: 4.876%, slightly below the when-issued (WI) yield of 4.877%, stopping through by 0.1 basis points.
- Bid-to-Cover Ratio: 2.54, indicating solid but not exceptional demand, as it was above the average of 2.3 but below the typical 2.63 for 20-year bond auctions.
- Allocation:
- Indirect Bidders: 60.64%, showing strong global confidence, though below the average of 67.6%.
- Direct Bidders: 26.47%, above the average of 18.3%.
- Primary Dealers: 12.88%, slightly below the average of 14.1%, suggesting dealers took on less than usual.
- Amount Sold: $16 billion, with 44.44% of bids awarded at the high yield.
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics will release the jobs benchmark revision on Sept 9, resetting the March 2025 payrolls level. Last September, the BLS revised down Nonfarm Payrolls by 818k, the largest negative revision since 2009, and prompted the Fed to cut 50. The FOMC is Sept 17
Breaking
Bessent bets on stablecoins to bolster demand for Treasuries [FT]
US tech slide extends into second day as concerns over AI rally rise [FT]
Trump urges Fed’s Cook to quit after mortgage fraud allegation [AFR]
Australia, US mull critical minerals price support to combat China [AFR]
Bitcoin
Possible inverse head and shoulders, but price struggling to stay above neckline and has rallied back to resistance.
Commodities
Textbook bounce from support brings us to the big move triggered by Mr Powell tomorrow.
Foreign Exchange
Break down and back to the scene of the crime for the second time on USD/CAD.
Bonds
Short-term 10 year Chinese yield seems to have bottomed, and breaking higher. Economy still tanking but no rate cuts has markets thinking PBoC doesn't know what it's doing.
China 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
Equities
Price pierced support but buyers stepped in to save the day.
Economic Indicators Today
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