Limit Up! 18 September 2025

Ian Reynolds September 18, 2025

From Market Maker to Trend Follower

In the 66th episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave speaks with Ian Reynolds, Director of Suberia Capital. Ian discusses lessons learned as a market maker in London, the evolution of market structure and technology, managing the mental game of trading, upside for Bitcoin, inflection points for the US Dollar, and why investors need to pay attention to gold. Recorded 9/9/25.

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Overnight

overnight

FED cuts 25bps

Bank of Canada Cuts 25bps

Other Economic News

Markets were disappointed by FED cut especially as balance sheet contraction continues and Powell's opening statement that they were cutting into inflation. Mr Macklem has a different situation but with equal problems. Canadian economy is tanking and rates are now 2.5%. We don't want to be going back to ZIRP.

US Equities were mixed but still bias is upwards especially as VIX dropped 4%.

US Equities

Breaking

China Bans Top Tech Firms From Buying Nvidia Chips, Report Says [Investopedia]

Fed pours ‘gasoline on the fire’ with rate cut. What could go wrong? [AFR]

Federal Reserve cuts rates by quarter point and signals more to come [FT]

China Banks Amped Up $10 Trillion Bond Bet Just as Market Peaked [Bloomberg]

New Zealand Economy’s Second-Quarter Slump Fuels Rate-Cut Bets [Bloomberg]

Bitcoin

Despite only 25bps, sell-off was restricted to tagging the neckline again. We're looking at a bull flag now from the move up from 107.3k. Minor double top at 117.3 and breaking it would see price up to 123.3k. Any speculation of FED policy error i.e. cutting into inflation, will see price up to our target of 150k in the next 2 months.

BITCOIN/USD Daily

Silver

Silver at, or just below, support from two trend channels. If they give way we could see $39.5/$40.0 pretty quickly. In reality, nothing has changed as FED still well behind the curve. It’s a consolidation until it’s not.

SILVER/USD Daily

Foreign Exchange

USD, via DXY, spikes despite the initial sell-off from the rate cut. We’re currently at the pivot point resistance at 96.75. which is key to maintaining the downward momentum. We’re still looking for 94.00 short-term. Only above 98.80 is bear view wrong.

DXY Daily

Bonds

FED cuts and rates go up. That’s the story of this year. Maybe some disappointment that only 25bps. Anyway the charts don’t care: double bottom at 4% with no close below 4.02% and we consolidate into a bear flag or the trend channel pushes us back to 4.25%.

US 30 Year Government Bond Yield Daily