Limit Up! 15th August 2025

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Overnight

Australia Unemployment Rate July 2025

Is it about time we questioned the Australian employment change numbers? They're totally random. 

UK GDP Q2 2025

UK's run of bad numbers seems to have ended. Time to look at Cable again?

EU GDP Q2 2025

EU looking ok but that German Industrial Production is dragging the whole bloc down.

US PPI July 2025

And the black swan we talked about yesterday arrived in US PPI big time!

• PPI (Final Demand) rose 0.9% month-over-month, well above economists' expectations of about 0.2%. This is the sharpest monthly increase since June 2022.

• Year-over-year, PPI climbed 3.3%, marking the largest annual increase since February. 

• Core PPI (excluding volatile food and energy) also jumped 0.9% month-over-month, with a notable rise in services—including trade margins, portfolio management fees, and airfares.

• Analysts and economists responded with concern:

  • The strong data has cast doubt on the likelihood of a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. 

  • Markets reacted with a dip in U.S. stock futures, higher Treasury yields, and a strengthening U.S. dollar. 

  • Some experts attribute part of the price jump to tariff-related pressures, where businesses may soon pass on costs to consumers. 

  • A Goldman Sachs estimate suggests consumers may ultimately bear up to 67% of these tariff costs, up from previous estimates of 22%. 

• The surge in wholesale inflation complicates monetary policy dynamics, particularly amid political tensions involving President Trump and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 Wall Street ends flat, but S&P hits another closing high as rate-cut bets waver [Reuters]

Equities sold off and then rallied into the close.

US Equities

Breaking

Fox News with Scott Bessent

• Probably won't revalue Gold
• Can't add to the Bitcoin Special Reserve
• These assets are intended for the Sovereign Wealth Fund when it arrives.

Bitcoin

PPI and Mr Bessent ruined what was a new all time high day for BTC. We did get the highest daily close though. The shooting star has been negated and this could develop into a bull flag.

BITCOIN/USD Daily

Commodities

The Treasury Secretary's remarks will keep a lid on Gold if not push price lower. It's good to wash out all the crazy theories and get back to basics. No rally on PPI.

GOLD/USD Daily

Foreign Exchange

USD ticked up but not at all convincing given we're back to 2 (from 3) rate cut expectations this year.

DXY Daily

Equities

And a bad day for price that ended neutral. Nothing stops this rally.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE Daily

Bonds

Yields didn't react that much to PPI either and we're sitting right at break up or down point. Here comes Retail Sales.

US 30 Year Government Bond Yield Daily

Interesting

Trump Administration Said to Discuss Taking Stake in Intel [Bloomberg]

Economic Indicators Today