Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
Economic Indicators Released Overnight
Welcome to Friday the Thirteenth.
Initially benign PPI, after CPI, helped put a bid on bonds and the well-received 30 year auction cemented a firm tone in markets but then the well-documented Israel strike on Iran happened.
Israel launches air strikes against Iran commanders and nuclear sites
Gold spikes, risk assets mixed and nothing from USD and bond yields. Needless to say oil went through the roof.
US Equities
Breaking
Israel says Iran has launched retaliatory drones [AFR]
Trump calls Fed chief Powell ‘numbskull’ as he urges interest rate cut [CNBC]
Asia stocks tumble as Israel attacks Iran; Japan, S. Korea lead losses [investing.com]
Bitcoin
Another clear rejection of the all time high by Bitcoin. Below 100k for 94k or short squeeze and higher?
Commodities
Gold pushing strongly higher and break of $3,500 will be explosive.
Oil spiking higher on Israel / Iran escalation. A confirmation above $76.00 looks for a big move higher.
Bonds
Good news from CPI/PPI and a solid 30 year auction pushes 10 year yields lower. We didn't see a flight to safety on the Israel / Iran news which must be worrying for Mr Bessent. Range trading with long term support for yield kicking in at 4.20% or so.
US 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
Foreign Exchange
Strong downtrend meets long term support on the DXY. The breakout will be epic, whichever way it goes.
Equities
Interestingly US equities up overnight whilst Asian shares lower this morning. Trump's continued assault on Powell keeps a bid in the market.
Interesting
The dollar's crown is slipping, and fast [Reuters]
US senator dragged out of LA immigration news conference [BBC]
Economic Indicators Today
