It's Arrived

Friday gave us more bad news from China and confirmation of a stagnant EU economy. There's plenty of negative signals out there yet US equities managed not to collapse in an amazing demonstration of buying the dip by retail investors.

US 30 year bond auction on Thursday was a flop as sentiment changes on a dime.

 

Key metrics included:

• Bid-to-cover ratio: 2.29 (below the average of 2.38 over the prior 10 auctions, signalling weaker demand).
• Tail: 1 basis point (high yield exceeded the when-issued level of 4.684%).
• Bidder breakdown (competitive bids): Indirect bidders (often foreign) took 71% ($17.71 billion accepted out of $19.57 billion tendered), direct bidders took 14.5% ($3.62 billion accepted out of $5.95 billion tendered), and primary dealers took the remaining 14.5% ($3.62 billion accepted out of $31.79 billion tendered).
• Noncompetitive tenders: $53.59 million accepted.
• Allotted at high: 23.04%.

Overall, the auction was described as a "very big miss" with mixed results and below-average demand, driven by the tail and low bid-to-cover ratio, though indirect participation was relatively strong.

Former Fed Official Violated Trading Rules, Disclosures Show [NY Times]

Janet Yellen: The US Is ‘In Danger of Becoming a Banana Republic’ [Bloomberg]

New York Fed met with Wall Street firms about key lending facility: FT [CNBC]

United States

US Economic Indicators

No data, of course, and a poor auctions, looks like Treasury can't kick the can down the road any longer. They have done well to contain contagion but the insane issuance has to have impact at some stage. 10 year yields under Trump, after vertical red line below, have only gone slightly lower. That wasn't the game plan. Now the FED has to save the day. And they're in disarray.

US 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily

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China

China Economic Indicators

China 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily

The Chinese economy is grinding lower. Unbelievably house prices are still falling after 4 years. And 10 year rates are bottoming.

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Europe

EU Economic Indicators

Not much activity happening in the EU either, as the recent uptick in Industrial Production, seems to be subsiding.

The wedge pattern is really tight now, in 10 year yields, and it's going to go big one way or another.

Germany 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily

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United Kingdom

UK Economic Indicators

UK economy deeply in trouble now as the recent economic uptick recedes fast. The wedge is narrow here, too, and has tried to break higher twice already.

UK 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily

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Canada

Canada Economic Indicators

Little data this week, but the Canadian economy is in deep trouble, and relies on it's relationship with the US!

Break of the wedge less likely here, but will probably follow Europe's lead.

Canada 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily

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Australia

 Australia Economic Indicators

 

 

Economic conditions are probably best in Australia, but it's still pretty limp. But that comes with inflation.

 

10 Year yields trying to break higher out of the tightest wedge. We just tried going lower.

 

 Australia 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily

Japan

Japan Economic Indicators

Japan's GDP is out today, and will probably shown reasonable growth. Inflation is still above target but that's what Japan has needed for 40 years. As long as it's not too strong. Yields are rising and currency falling to get to an equilibrium. We may never see that equilibrium as other events play out.

Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily

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What's Next?

Hopefully we''re start seeing US data but it will be months before they become in any way believable.

Trump is starting to wind back tariffs as the economy tanks. Will he even get to the Mid-terms?

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This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]

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Limit Up Podcast 10 November 2025