Latest: Iran launches retaliatory attack on Israel with hundreds of drones, missiles [Reuters]

Paxos Gold 15 Minute Chart

Paxos Gold, a cryptocurrency backed by physical Gold, spiked $60 on the war news. It normally trades at a slight discount to Gold. 

Bitcoin plunges 5% in thin trade. With cryptocurrencies the only markets open over the weekend, this may give some direction for the week's trading, which will be light on economic indicators.

Alert: US proposes debt to fund Ukraine using profits from frozen Russian assets

Alert: Australian elite seek to divert Russia’s $9b ‘dirty money’ to Ukraine [Apple News]

A massive move in the normally benign Gold and Silver  markets underline the flight to safety, away from inflation, US Treasury fundings issues and away from war.

The normal beneficiary - US Treasuries - the so-called risk free investment, doesn't appear to have benefitted although the USD was up across the board.

Gold Daily

Silver Daily

Switzerland could be about to add bitcoin to its reserves. [Clive Thompson on LinkedIn]

Indian Silver imports surge to record levels [FXStreet]

USD / YEN Monthly

The ECB surprised no-one and seems not to have a plan

• Not committing to particular rate path
• Decisions taken meeting to meeting and data dependent
• Unemployment lowest since start of Euro but getting weaker
• Inflation sticky but dropping next year

The US CPI report was what moved markets. The third consecutive higher print is contrary to Powell's narrative although some of the other committee members walked that narrative back a bit.

Remember there is something that the FED is really good at, and I don''t mean policy decisions.

They're super good at jawboning the market into finessing policy for them. 

US CPI March 2024

PPI came in slightly lower than expected which paused the treasury sell-off

US PPI March 2024

Yields Soar After Catastrophic 10Y Auction Shocks With 3rd Biggest Tail On Record [Zerohedge]

JPMorgan Makes the Case That High Rates Are Actually Driving Inflation [Bloomberg] 

Credit-Card Delinquency Rates Were Worst on Record in Fed Study[Bloomberg]

JPMorgan, BlackRock Among BLS Economist’s CPI ‘Super Users’ [Bloomberg]

Costco Selling Up To $200 Million In Gold Bars Per Month, Wells Fargo Estimates [CNN]

Business Bankruptcies Jump as Slow Wave of Failure Speeds Up [Bloomberg]

FDIC Chief Says US Ready If Big Wall Street Bank Ever Failed [Bloomberg]

China

China's propping up it's economy by fiscal and monetary hasn't worked. Last month's higher CPI print was more a reflection of the national week's holiday spending and now in March CPI down 1%.

China CPI & PPI March 2024

China Imports / Exports March 2024

China central bank to set up $70 billion tech re-lending programme [Investing.com]

Fitch cuts China's ratings outlook on growth risks [Reuters]

China shakes wheat market with canceled shipments from U.S., Australia [Nikkei Asia]

In The Background

Commercial Real Estate

Big Tech’s Cost Cuts Help Trigger a Dublin Office Crash

Global Immigration

 New Zealand tightens visa rules after migration hits ‘unsustainable’ levels [Apple News]

Germany

Germany Industrial Production February 2024

Australia

Australia Consumer Sentiment April 2024

Australia seems to be sleep walking into recession, driven by high interest rates and the depletion of government assistance from COVID. All levels of government are up to their necks in debt and the consumer is finally seeing the writing on the wall. 

Exclusive: Chinese buyers cancel, postpone Australian wheat buys amid global surplus [Reuters]

What's Next

A light week for economic indicators. 

Stay nimble !

This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]