Can Crypto Save America?

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Overnight

Economic Indicators Released Overnight

The see-saw of US economic data continues with inflation expectations lowering again and housing starts accelerating despite all the anecdotal evidence of way more sellers than buyers. Japan's CPI is definitely trending lower now and German input prices are stabilising, having been in a downward spiral for some time.

Equities closed the week on a defensive note.

US Equities

Breaking

Fed's Waller wants July interest rate cut amid rising growth, job market risks [Reuters]

Can Crypto Save America?

Cryptocurrency market cap hit US$4T this week amidst a frenzy of policy. The only actual bill that passed into law was;

 GENIUS Act (Stablecoin Regulation)

• House passage: On July 17, 2025, the U.S. House approved the GENIUS Act by a vote of 308–122, following its earlier Senate approval (68–30) 

  • Establishes the first federal framework for stablecoins.

  • Requires issuers (banks, credit unions, fintech) to hold reserves fully backed by U.S. dollars and maintain public transparency.

  • Stablecoins are not classified as securities and are not deposit liabilities.

• In the pipeline;

CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Structure)

• House approval: Passed 294–134 alongside GENIUS

• Purpose: Clarifies whether digital assets fall under SEC or CFTC jurisdiction based on asset characteristics such as decentralisation

• Establishes a clear taxonomy for digital assets—distinguishing between digital commodities, restricted digital assets (securities), and permitted payment stablecoins—and assigns regulatory authority accordingly.

• Formally divides jurisdiction between the CFTC (commodities) and the SEC (securities), laying to rest long-standing ambiguity.

• Status: Now heads to the Senate.

Anti‑CBDC Surveillance State Act

• Passed 219–210 in the House 

• Objective: Prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), citing privacy concerns 

  Next step: Awaits Senate approval.

White House crypto czar David Sacks says stablecoin bill will unlock ‘trillions’ for U.S. Treasury [CNBC]

The Trump Administration is heralding in the next wave of financial innovation, made in the US of A.

Mr Bessent is crowing how stablecoins can help the US debt situation, by being secured by Trillions of USD of US Treasuries. He is talking 2-5$T but that's just the amount that the debt ceiling is going to increase by. In fact in a couple of weeks the US Government has added half a trillion dollars to the debt pile.

The stablecoin thing isn't going to touch the sides of the debt spiral that the US finds itself in, and only benefits the banking system.

It seems to be incongruous that the latest financial innovation is helping to prop up the old, corrupt and bankrupt system.

Precious Metals / Commodities

Silver was the star of the week, hitting $39. History tells us that a big spike up to $50 or $60 is due, and then a really sharp pullback.

SILVER/USD Monthly

Bitcoin (& Crypto)

As Crypto Week at The White House closes, BTC is lower as traders take profit. With all the new players coming into the space, don't expect a big pull back.

BITCOIN/USD Monthly

CRE / Banks / CLOs 

Yet more price discovery waiting for a declining stock market to give lenders the opportunity to write off loans.

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United States

US Economic Indicators

No inflationary pressures and a solid jobs market. And bank lending is picking up too. This may turn out to be transitory but the "Economy Crashing" headlines are way off at the moment.

US Commercial & Industrial Loans

Bond yields have been climbing globally this year and it's all driven by US yields, which are forming a bull flag on the monthly chart. We may have some months before we see the outcome but it's likely to be spectacular when it arrives.

US 10 Year Government Bond Yield Monthly

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China

China Economic Indicators

Finally a wave of data, after many weeks of drought. The consumer is still on the ropes and the housing market keeps getting worse, 3 years of decreasing house prices. It will take decades to turn this around. 

China House Prices YoY

China may be secretly stockpiling gold. Why that spells trouble for the U.S. dollar. [MarketWatch]

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Japan

Japan Economic Indicators

Japanese inflation heading lower but still above target. Rates still need to be higher and without manipulation.

If there is one thing Japan is good at, it's elections. So many elections. This weekend's election;

Japanese House of Councillors Election (Upper House)

A loss for the LDP–Komeito majority could trigger another no-confidence vote in Prime Minister Ishiba, weaken Japan’s negotiating position with the U.S, and maybe cause economic volatility in markets, and possibly force Ishiba’s resignation 

• Election results expected late on 20 July 2025

• The ruling coalition’s ability to hold at least 50 of the 124 contested seats will determine if they retain a working majority.

• A coalition setback may lead to policy shifts (tax vs stimulus), new negotiations with the U.S, and potential changes in leadership.

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Europe

EU Economic Indicators

EU in a good place as economy starts to rebound after a long, stagnant spell. Inflation at target gives ECB room to cut further.

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United Kingdom

UK Economic Indicators

Higher inflation and lower employment. UK Govt getting it totally wrong as rates rise, making funding the debt even more difficult.

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Canada

Canada Economic Indicators

A sluggish economy but inflation stuck above target leaves Canada with nowhere to go when tariffs hit.

Rates backed up a lot this week.

Canada 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily

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Australia

Australia Economic Indicators

Really poor employment report tells us that the RBA has made yet another policy error. Rates should be lower even if it makes housing even more unaffordable. A economic disaster on it's way.

Should Australia be partnering with the Chinese tech giants designing a surveillance state? [ABC News]

US demands clarity from allies on their role in potential war over Taiwan, FT reports

Secret Treasury advice accidentally leaked, Albanese government told to raise taxes and slash spending to fix budget [News.com.au]

Gladstone hydrogen project axed: Chris Bowen's green energy fantasy continues slow sink into the abyss as $12.5 billion plant gets reality check [Sky News]

China expert says Australia has 'serious' problem as Beijing 'weaponises' expatriates to interfere in domestic elections [Sky News]

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What's Next?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a banking conference, hopefully Coldplay won't be there!
Tuesday, July 22, 2025, 8:30 a.m. ET
Washington, D.C. 

And it's the ECB in the headlights, expected to hold rates, but a cut would curb the Euro's strength and get Comrade Powell into trouble at school again.