Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
China CPI April 2025
More bad news for China as the economy bumps along the bottom. They'd better hope someone wants the cheap goods they have already made (and shipped).
Breaking
Banks In Crypto: The OCC’s Quiet Game-Changer [Forbes]
Trade Deal?
We got a new pope this week as the smoke from the Vatican finally was white. Feels like it's the same with Scotty Bessent and his colleagues meeting the Chinese delegation in Switzerland.
Any hope from the meeting should evaporate quickly though as it's no doubt the first of many, and is already priced in.
Precious Metals / Commodities
Gold held the uptrend on Friday and still looks good. We've seen Gold and BTC have opposite price discovery recently but now they look to be more in parallel as US Treasuries fail to rally with good news.
GOLD / USD Daily
Bitcoin (& Crypto)
BTC breaks higher and looking good. Perfectly poised for the 4 year cycle high in the next 6 months. We're still relatively close to the 200 day moving average. Liquidity, monetary or assets, looking good as China and Canada are overtly doing QE and others are, under the radar. FED will be forced to join the game and have already ended QT.
BITCOIN / USD Daily
CRE / Banks / CLOs
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Liquidations of CRE all over the US as extend and pretend has run it's course.
It's been amazing how the regulators have been able to kick this can down the road, however $2.2 trillion of mortgage backed securities on the FED balance sheet helps.
United States
US Economic Indicators
Despite the FED holding, it was a good week for US markets, ruined only by the 10 year yield which seemingly won't go down.
A poor 30 year auction heralded plenty of speculation. Those auctions will be super important in the next few months.
China
China Economic Indicators
We're running out of time to say those exports were US consumers front-running tariffs.
Rate cuts and liquidity injections this week, drove the 10 year to 1.65% as China runs out of options financially.
They are however still buying Gold.
Japan
Japan Economic Indicators
Japan is all over the place economically and politically. In a good but bad position re tariffs in that easy to make a deal with Trump but had already promised China a regional response. It's not a good look going forward.
USD / YEN still hasn't confirmed the break back.
USD / YEN Daily
Europe
EU Economic Indicators
Things definitely on the up in Germany / Europe. And Ukraine now pivoting to dealing with the EU, having secured some certainty in the minerals deal with Trump, means the EU has to manage Russia. Could be a surprise good result. Markets will bet otherwise.
Is the Euro losing it's shine? Watch for confirmation below the channel.
EUR / USD Daily
United Kingdom
UK Economic Indicators
A rate cut and trade deal made it a good week for the UK. Starmer having a good run as trade deals with the EU and China are also on the table. I must admit, he's managed to put the UK in prime position globally, to benefit from the tariff stuff.
Canada
Canada Economic Indicators
Canada still waiting for MR T. Carney put on a brave face in The White House and is definitely the right man for the job.
Economically stagnant and with the Bank of Canada on hold, all eyes on Alberta and the shift to be acquired by the US.
Australia
Australia Economic Indicators
A landslide victory for the incumbent Labour Government was cheered by zero Australians.
All levels of government are mired in debt and the economy only propped up by government spending. In fact spending so much that they need to tax unrealised gains. "The unrealised gains tax has been carefully designed by Treasury so it can be extended to all investment assets and maybe one day the family home" - from The Australian.
Government debt to hit $1 trillion as soon as September [AFR]
A real opportunity to short the Aussie after it's been squeezed up by a weak USD. The bull trap shows the way.
AUD / USD Daily
Interesting
What's Next ?
US CPI and PPI will be the focus, number-wise and Powell speaking on Thursday will no doubt back up the latest FED presser.
This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]
![This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]](https://vip.suberia.capital/hs-fs/hubfs/11052025/indicators.jpg?width=658&height=528&name=indicators.jpg)
