"I doubt Fed Chair Powell will do another interview like this anytime soon. He struggled with some of the smart questions, often deflecting with historical explanations, and he confused the economics of different possible scenarios. His response to the question on a new monetary framework will likely leave many perplexed." Mohamed A. El-Erian [X]
FED Chair Powell is in a bit of a fix, and his (and the FED's) credibility is on the line. And this week's slightly stronger than expected PPI and steady CPI hasn't helped his cause.
In the last 5 years
No wonder he has lost control of the bond market.
The mantra of being data dependent doesn't work, just makes them reactive. You can't manage monetary policy of the biggest economy in the world without a strategy.
We didn't even mention Trump.
Fed's Logan: Models show that Fed funds could be 'very close' to neutral [Forex Live]
Economy not signalling Fed needs to be hurry to cut rates, Fed's Powell says[investing.com]
If Trump Tries to Fire Powell, Fed Chair Is Ready for a Legal Fight [Wall St Journal]
Trump only 95% likely hood of being inaugurated as President [Polymarket]
Indian cenbank likely selling dollars to support rupee amid Asian currencies' slide [Reuters]
Bitcoin Monthly
Whether you like it or hate it (there's no in between), it's the chart of our lifetimes. Hard not to be super bullish as previously hostile actors are now supposedly embracing it ( US Govt, municipalities ).
Options got the green light from CFTC so more trading and liquidity.
The pain continues and now rents may be moving lower too.
China M2 YoY October 2024
China House Prices YoY October 2024
China Industrial Production October 2024
China House Prices YoY Since 2012
Chinese money supply unsurprisingly increasing with all the stimulus but no joy in the housing market still.
USD / Offshore Yuan Monthly
PBoC desperately trying to keep the Yuan afloat as we wait for news about tariffs.
Japan PPI October 2024
Japan GDP Q3 2024
BOJ calls for vigilance to presence of non-bank financial institutions [Reuters]
Japan's economy has been stagnant for over 30 years. All that government debt has killed all chances of a happy life for so many Japanese citizens.
The Japanese government and central bank have lost control of markets and the Yen continues to weaken.
USD / YEN Monthly
US CPI October 2024
US PPI October 2024
NY State Manufacturing Index November 2024
Traders Ramp Up Bets on a Treasury Selloff After Trump’s Win [Bloomberg]
Financial trade group calls on SEC chief Gensler to ‘immediately’ step down [The Hill]
Trump Picks Musk, Ramaswamy for Government Efficiency Effort [Bloomberg]
CPI and PPI slightly higher means less rate cuts and stock markets moved lower. The USD strength isn't helping and once the Trump euphoria ( 2 words that have never been used next to each other) wanes we'll find out what the bond vigilantes have in store for us.
The US Treasury 10 year yield looks ominous.
US 10 Year Treasury Yield Monthly
Canada Building Permits September 2024
Canada Wholesale Sales September 2024
More hopeful numbers in Canada but the Loonie weakening further.
USD / CAD Monthly
UK Unemployment September 2024
UK Industrial Production September 2024
The UK economy looks dire and nearly in recession with unemployment rising.
Germany CPI October 2024
EU Industrial Production September 2024
Europe must prepare for new trade war with US, ECB officials warn [Reuters]
German parliament to hold confidence vote on Dec. 16, source says [Reuters]
Germany is a dog with fleas. Stagnant economy and the manufacturing base cratering. Now with a political mess and soaring energy prices.
Westpac Consumer Sentiment November 2024
Australia Wage Price Index Q3 2024
Australia Unemployment October 2024
Big industry super property fund plunges to $1.5b loss on write-downs [AFR]
Fears that $10b in building sites will grind to a halt on Tuesday [AFR]
AUD / USD Monthly
A week light on data but look for
Non-bank financial institutions seem to be mentioned more in the last week. Private equity news should be part of our focus going forward.