Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
Economic Indicators Released Overnight
No good news for the global economy which seems to be stagnating, with only the US doing OK but even that picture is cloudy. At least German CPI is at or near target which means more rate cuts, and the US Michigan survey is positive with inflation expectations going in the right direction.
But equities are nervous.
Global Equities
All of that will change as the Israel / Iran war escalates. Broken supply chains and much higher crude prices are the black swans that we have been expecting.
Trump Rejects Netanyahu's Request To Join War, As Israel Needs Large US Bunker Buster Bombs [Zerohedge]
Pakistan scrambles jets at nuclear sites amid Israeli strikes on Iran [Yahoo! News]
And the US President has more problems
Fact Check: Real 1997 photo of Trump and Epstein together thrown into new light by X post from Musk [Yahoo! News]
Breaking
Bond Auctions Are Turning Into Wall Street’s Most-Watched Events [Bloomberg]
Japan's top tariff negotiator rejects notion of partial deal with U.S.[Reuters]
Uncertainty
Markets hate uncertainty. Deep, liquid markets with many counterparties are expert in pricing risk. You may not like the price, but at least it's tradable. But at what point are markets uncertain?
Friday's close with an Israeli attack on Iran, saw US equities down but not out. No-one would carry excessive positions into this weekend with only Bitcoin open to hedge with.
Bitcoin however has been stable, and indeed the price slightly higher.
For the moment markets are still stable, with the possible exception of oil, which is clearly going higher when markets open on Monday.
What could change?
Currently the conflict hasn't drawn in any other countries. Yes Israel has US, UK an others supplying it and the same could be said for Iran via Russia and China, but all of this was predictable
Trump has been adamant that the US would not be drawn into the dispute any further. This is what is keeping markets certain for now.
Effectively World War 3 is contingent on the rationality of Donald J. Trump, a President with many other problems both internally and externally to the US. A student of history will tell us that great wars have been set off by minor actors.
Markets are currently stable but that could change really quickly.
Precious Metals / Commodities
Gold powering forward as, wherever you look, it's positive for it.
GOLD / USD Daily
China stretched its gold-buying spree into the 7th straight month in May, signaling more central bank de-dollarization [Yahoo! Finance]
SPOT BRENT Weekly
Bitcoin (& Crypto)
A second rejection of the all time high suggests a consolidation before we have another thrust higher.
BITCOIN / USD Daily
CRE / Banks / CLOs
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CRE now experiencing a washout of the real dogs with fleas. There seems to be no end to the narrative here.
United States
US Economic Data
Benign inflation data has helped equity markets grind higher and bond yield to stabilise.
Treasury buy-backs have helped too.
Some call it QE but that's ignorance. Not the FED and cash not going into reserves and more importantly not printed. This is Treasury buying back illiquid bonds in an effort to keep Primary Dealers happy. And they paid for the bonds with their own money.
DXY Monthly
China
China Economic Data
Deflation pervades and Xi is staying under the radar. Those exports are going to Europe. Let's hope a dumping crisis doesn't appear as China tries to find a home for all the product they have already made.
China’s $1.1tn asset manager becomes star player on ‘national team’ [FT]
30 year yields are at an all time low and could see 1.5% imminently unless an economic turnaround appears.
China 30 Year Government Bond Yield Monthly
Japan
Japan Economic Data
The Japanese economy is slowing while the Bank of Japan / Ministry of Finance seem determined on rate hikes.
Japan to consider buying back some super-long government bonds, sources say [Reuters]
USD / YEN still not confirming a break lower. It's been a long time coming.
USD / YEN Monthly
Europe
EU Economic Data
Europe seems stable and with inflation at, and maybe below, target, rate cuts can continue to spur growth.
EUR / USD Monthly
United Kingdom
UK Economic Indicators
A set back for the UK as the good news comes to a halt. We need the Bank of England to cut and a lot. Base rates at 4.25% are way too high. However the government's continued fiddling with tax and fiscal policy, is not helping investors and entrepreneurs build better outcomes.
Canada
Canada Economic Indicators
Not much good news out of Canada recently and their currency is strong versus the USD. That won't help. 
USD / CAD Monthly
Australia
Australia Economic Indicators
A big jump in inflation expectations doesn't help the case for a third 25bp rate cut, that the Reserve Bank considered but didn't implement.
The AUD is in a structural decline and even the recent 15% decline in the USD, hasn't changed the situation.
Interesting
Dollar Ructions Lay Groundwork for a ‘Global Euro Moment’ [Bloomberg]
Who Are the Lawmakers Who Were Shot? [NY Times]
America Cast Itself as the World’s Moral Leader. Not Anymore [Bloomberg]
What's Next?
Bank of Japan, FED and Bank of England, 2 wars and possible further political instability in the US make for an interesting week.
This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]
