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Economic Indicators Released Friday
US Equities
Picture: US deputy Middle East envoy Morgan Ortagus raises her hand to veto a draft resolution during a United Nations Security Council meeting on the situation in Gaza, at UN headquarters in New York on Thursday.
Geopolitically Israel, and therefore the US, is becoming more isolated
The following countries are about to officially recognise the state of Palestine next week in a United Nations announcement.
Portugal to recognize a Palestinian state, government says [Reuters]
UK will recognise Palestine state after end of Trump state visit [The Times]
Also Egypt and Luxembourg are waiting in the wings.
This topic will escalate geopolitical uncertainty and pull Trump into a very difficult arena.
Argentina spends $1bn to defend peso as Milei’s crisis spirals [FT]
Trump and Xi to meet in South Korea as US president hails TikTok deal [FT]
In the 66th episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave speaks with Ian Reynolds, Director of Suberia Capital. Ian discusses lessons learned as a market maker in London, the evolution of market structure and technology, managing the mental game of trading, upside for Bitcoin, inflection points for the US Dollar, and why investors need to pay attention to gold. Recorded 9/9/25.
Gold's 18 months plus rally continues with the second highest ever daily close. FED's policy error, cutting into inflation, recognises that it is stuck between a rock and a hard place. All decisions will be wrong for the markets, and the current flight to non-sovereign assets will continue.
Likewise Silver is on a tear. Both Gold and Silver price action was soft on Friday before closing at highs. More importantly no attempt by market insiders to slap down the price.
Brent still hasn't fallen to anticipated levels despite OPEC's many output increases. Maybe a slower decline is on the cards.
117k seems to be a real line in the sand for Bitcoin. Can't get above it currently on the monthly and the trend line below shows price hasn't closed above since 2017. Easy to fade but price has been above the psychological 100k level since June 23 now.
Things getting legal in CRE space as contagion now spreading to auto loans with the first subprime lender going bankrupt
US Economic Indicators
Seemingly positive economic data this week but FED still cut which caused long rates to rise and asked a whole heap of questions about the institution's credibility.
The big rush into Treasuries on recession fears and FED cutting big time, is over and will leave a lot of bond speculators with big losses unless they move fast. Ironically the USD bottoming out may be the time to buy bonds, for foreigners, if they're not already too long.
Has the FED achieved the worst possible outcome?
USD, via DXY, is still holding the 15 year uptrend. A break lower would be big.
China Economic Indicators
Economy still going south in China, and house prices still falling. Foreign capital going into stock markets but bond yields rising because the bailout of local authorities has to happen, is being talked about publicly by CCP now, not economy bottoming.
Seemingly all new is bad news.
China's central bank to conduct 500-billion-yuan outright reverse repo operation [english.gov.cn]
China 30 Year Bond Yield Monthly
Japan Economic Indicators
Bank of Japan Holds Rates, Creates Chaos in Markets
CPI is declining, albeit slowly and without food component. The economy is slowing as tariffs reduce exports to the US. But 10 year yields keep rising choking off growth. Unwinding the BoJ JGB portfolio would create havoc right now, but maybe there's no choice.
Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield Monthly
EU Economic Indicators
European companies cut jobs in response to slowing economy [Reuters]
All quiet economically where Industrial Production seems to have stopped declining at least. Much bigger things to worry about like paying for Ukraine to defend itself against Russia and the consequences of isolating the US, as the EU takes a much bolder stance against Israel.
Aside from that, charts would suggest that rate rises continue and possibly significantly when the cost of defending Ukraine becomes clearer.
Germany 10 Year Government Bond Yield Monthly
UK Economic Indicators
30 Year rates looking to burst even higher as strong speculation that the government can't last until Christmas becomes widespread. Sucking up to Trump is a last ditch attempt to gain credibility but being mates with the most indebted country in history isn't a good look.
UK inflation is way too high and those rates should be higher for that alone. A change in government would invoke a massive, but short-lived, rally in Gilts.
Pound, gilts hit by surge in UK borrowing [investing.com]
Nvidia to Invest $2.7 Billion in U.K. AI Startup Development [Wall St Journal]
Starmer has until May to turn things around, say MPs and unions [FT]
LSEG rolls outs blockchain-based platform for private funds [Reuters]
UK 30 Year Government Bond Yield Monthly
Canada Economic Indicators
Cratering Retails Sales and Housing Starts reinforce recessionary GDP and slowing inflation numbers. But rates are 2.5% now. Are they going to follow Switzerland to zero?
Monthly chart shows rates in a bull flag, waiting to break higher. They should go the opposite way in a recession but global rates moving higher will stop that happening, making things even worse for Canada.
Canada 10 Year Government Bond Yield Monthly
Australia Economic Indicators
Terrible employment numbers were the highpoint of the week where Australia realised it's migration policies were out of control. It's hard to believe that a country can deliberately follow the actions of the UK and Germany, who at least were attempting to solve a real problem. A slow-motion car wreck which, along with desperate tax policies, will have capital leaving the country faster than it can arrive from the USA (diversification away from Trump).
Monthly breakout of AUD/USD on the cards.
‘Xi is watching’: How Trump’s aid cuts have left Australia ‘holding the bag’ [Sydney Morning Herald]
China orders steel mills to stop using some BHP iron ore [AFR]
Albanese government pours $12 billion into expanding AUKUS defence facility near Perth [ABC]
Report: Australia’s immigration system is unskilled and broken [MacroBusiness]
The Big Read. Is America entering a new era of McCarthyism? [FT]
Monthly Core PCE, according to the FED their favourite measure of inflation, is on Friday. Hotter than expected would be really bad for markets as FED credibility would be in tatters if it isn't already.