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Risk Assets on a Tear | Beware the Macro Picture

Written by Ian Reynolds | Jan 21, 2023 11:51:00 PM

Risk Assets on a Tear

Everyone's favourite non-correlated asset (haha) has been spiking higher

BTC / USD on a tear in 2023

And the NASDAQ too. You choice of diagonal. Remember diagonal lines are for context, horizontal lines are for order placements.

NASDAQ nearing resistance.

Gold and Silver looking perky too.

Short-term top for AUD ?

An engulfing shooting star suggests AUD / USD is not happy above 0.70c. Obviously background of relatively stronger USD from BOJ inaction on interest rate policy, would support this trade and with resistance at 0.7142 from pivot in August and and 0.7093 (50 % 0.80 to 0.6172 Fibonacci retracement) stops are easy to set, at least.

AUD / USD daily

Unemployment in US to soar

Great Chart from Visual Capitalist

More here

In 2023 alone the following tech giants have announced layoffs

 

  • Google: 12,000
  • Microsoft: 10,000
  • Amazon: 18,000

 

US banks are going to follow. JPM, BOA, Goldman and more announced increased loan loss provisions in their latest updates, following large scale retrenching in mortgage teams. This is the theme from last week's communication Short & Caught | US Consumer in Trouble . Adding to the story this week is are stories of a collapsing US second hand car market and poor retail sales numbers. This is counterpoint to the weekly jobless claims numbers which have been historically low and non-farm payrolls which have been moderate.

This is an ongoing tug-of-war between workers leaving the workforce during COVID and layoffs being easily absorbed into the jobs marketplace. Sooner or later there will be no more jobs shortage as the once retired and well-off are forced back.

Import Economic Releases This Week

Important Economic Indicators Week Commencing 23 Jan 2023

Full list of economic indicators

In Case You Missed It

 

  1. Jacinda Ardern resigns as prime minister of New Zealand
  2. Saudis Confirm Non-Dollar Oil Trade Plans In Davos
  3. ECB weighing smaller rate rises in policy backflip
  4. Why US debt ceiling row could spark first downgrade in a decade
  5. World Bank warns global economy will come ‘perilously close’ to a recession