Ian Reynolds
Politicians, markets, CRE owners, mortgage holders and households worldwide are praying for rate cuts and cuts have started in Europe. And it seems now that we're on the cusp of cuts in the US. The problem is it's way too late.
Breaking
Donald Trump ‘safe’ after apparent shooting at Pennsylvania rally [Financial Times]
Saudis Warned G-7 Over Russia Seizures With Debt Sale Threat [Bloomberg]
BRICS to launch independent financial system Moscow [Malaysia Sun]
NATO begins sending F-16 jets in new support for Ukraine [News.com.au]
China, Belarus start joint military drills near Polish border [Reuters]
Argentina to sell dollars on parallel market as part of anti-inflation drive [investing.com]
In Focus
Japan
Japan Likely Spent $22 Billion on Yen Intervention Thursday [Bloomberg]
BoJ intervention, for once with good timing, hitting the dollar as it went south with the lower than expected CPI
USD / YEN Daily
The currency closed sharply lower at 157.90 on Friday.
Japan real wages down for 25th month in row but improving steadily [Reuters]
Japan's base pay rises by most in 31-years, part-time workers see robust gains [Reuters]
US Economy
Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers semiannual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee [Yahoo Finance]
Ok we can go now. Cue the CPI data and a big rally in bond and interest rate markets.
A much higher PPI on Friday, ruined the narrative though.
US CPI June 2024
US PPI June 2024
Commercial Banks Buy Treasuries at Fastest Pace Since Pandemic [Bloomberg]
There's plenty of anecdotal evidence that the locked-up housing market is about to break. Previously sellers who couldn't sell or they would have to refinance at much higher rates, seem to be cutting their losses.
The leading indictor is the lumber market, which lead prices much higher after COVID, and is now looking sick.
US Lumber Futures July 2024
Housing Market Entering 'Crash Stage' in Multiple Cities [Newsweek]
2023 saw the most evictions in metro Phoenix in nearly 2 decades. Why? [Arizona Central]
Big US banks warn of stress among lower-income consumers [FT]
Companies are going bankrupt at the fastest pace since the pandemic [Business Insider]
And at a fiscal level, it's a basket case.
US Deficit Reaches $1.27 Trillion in Fiscal Year-to-Date [Bloomberg]
United Kingdom
The UK seems to be moving swiftly back to the dire era in the 1970s. A time where electricity was scarce, unions were very powerful and politicians were a pretty gloomy lot. The 3 day week, Wilson, Callaghan & Scargill, being bailed out by the IMF.
Dozens more councils could switch to a four-day working week under Labour despite Britain's productivity crisis. The 4 Day Week Campaign, which has called for a nationwide trial, said a more “sympathetic Labour government” could pave the way for more local authorities to switch to a shorter week.
More councils told to ‘plan for four-day week’ under Labour [The Telegraph]
Large London office buildings are proving almost impossible to sell as high interest rates and investor nerves over hybrid working thwart efforts to kick-start dealmaking.
Large London office buildings proving almost impossible to sell [FT]
In The Background
CRE / Banks / CLOs
 |
|
|
U.S. And European Commercial Real Estate Market Stress Reflected In CMBS Downgrades [S&P Global]
Key Takeaways from S&P
- Higher interest rates, e-commerce, and the jump in popularity of remote working introduced by the COVID-19 pandemic have produced unprecedented levels of stress in commercial real estate (CRE).
- Some segments are now facing market value declines that are greater than during the global financial crisis (GFC). In particular, the market value of office and retail properties has declined significantly over the past several years in both the U.S. and Europe.
- Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) have seen a corresponding rise in credit risk. Given the persistent and severe deterioration in underlying CRE markets, we have lowered 732 of the 2,799 CMBS ratings that were outstanding at the beginning of 2020 (i.e., a 26.2% downgrade rate). Of these, 134 tranches have defaulted (i.e., a 4.8% default rate). Over the same period, six tranches initially rated 'AAA' have defaulted (corresponding to a 0.6% default rate), in some cases suffering a principal loss.
- Higher interest rates continue to increase the challenge of refinancing commercial mortgage loans, and more defaults could follow, particularly for loans secured on lower-quality office properties in secondary locations. This could put further pressure on CMBS ratings.
Investors trying to pull money out of commercial real-estate funds are hitting a wall [Morningstar]
Bitcoin / US Election
Canada
Canadian Unemployment
The slow march higher in Canada's unemployment rate looks to be the canary in the mine for the US, which is beginning to see the employment market turn.
China
China CPI June 2024
China Trade Balance June 2024
Chinese CPI showed a stagnant economy but more worrying are the trade numbers which highlighted that although exports are reviving, the domestic economy is experiencing a lot of pain.
With money supply contracting sharply, authorities have moved quickly to force smaller banks to merge with bigger ones so that impaired real estate loans can be managed.
Europe
Germany Trade Balance May 2024
Imports and exports sharply lower tell the continuing story of the decimation of German manufacturing.
The story is getting much worse as the media have picked up on future unfunded government obligations.
From the FT, Here’s a chart showing unfunded entitlements as percent of local GDP for EU and EFTA countries at the end of 2021, together with the value of asset-backed pensions:
Listen and repeat: pensions are big, but they are definitely NOT debt [FT]
Moody’s Warns on French Debt Outlook Amid Political Gridlock [Bloomberg]
The left-wing French coalition hoping to introduce 90% tax on rich [Sky News]
Australia
Australia Consumer Confidence June 2024
What's Next ?
ECB monetary policy is in focus. Will Ms Lagarde cut again in the face of the FED having not pulled the trigger yet?
This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]
![This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]](https://vip.suberia.capital/hs-fs/hubfs/indicators-Jul-10-2024-10-26-30-8423-AM.jpg?width=658&height=428&name=indicators-Jul-10-2024-10-26-30-8423-AM.jpg)
