Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
Very weak US retail sales and low growth in Europe summed up the economic news on Friday.
In Munich the US Vice-President wasn't sugar coating Trump's message.
JD Vance stuns Munich conference with blistering attack on Europe’s leaders [The Guardian]
But the real news is peace talks now seem to be a reality.
US, Russia to meet in Saudi Arabia over Ukraine war [Reuters]
As a result Oil, Gold, Silver and the USD plummeted late Friday.
DXY Daily
Breaking
Zelenskiy Says Will Only Meet With Putin on His Terms [Bloomberg]
Gold
A crazy week in Gold ended with a sell-off. We hit 2,940 twice this week at which point very sharp falls occurred.
Gold / USD 15 Mins
Bitcoin (& Crypto)
In contrast to the wild swings in Gold, Bitcoin is performing the store of value snooze.
Bitcoin / USD
CRE / Banks / CLOs
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Top Ten New York City Sale Price Cuts 2024 [Property Shark]
Australia’s tallest apartment project stops paying its bills [AFR]
United States
Stagflation is the word to describe the US economy currently.
Still much chatter about bankruptcies, zombie companies, record household debt etc just doesn't show up in the numbers even if the numbers were being finessed by the Biden Administration.
Powell is still firmly of the belief that the economy is doing fine and that the FED is doing a great job with the dual mandates.
A more likely explanation is that Wall St. is doing just dandy but Main St. is getting crushed and the numbers don't give us the detail just a view from the moon. And that's no use to anyone.
China
Lack of info post Chinese New Year let's us look at the systemic drivers. With all the stimulus no surprise that New Loans was a lot higher but M2 lower?
It's pretty much at it's lowest growth in the last 25 years
China M2 Money Stock YoY
Japan
Japan PPI January 2025
At last inflation seems to be sticking in Japan and the authorities can let rates rise to something like normal, whatever that means.
But they should be careful what they wish for.
Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield Monthly
Europe
With EU finally confronting that they've got it wrong for all these years: too much focus on zero carbon, woke stuff and over regulation, it's time to realise that the EU is not Germany and Germany is not the EU economically.
With elections in Germany looking like a less EU friendly administration, is it time for a big change?
Thyssenkrupp warns US tariffs could prompt more cheap Chinese steel exports to Europe [FT]
United Kingdom
UK GDP December 2025
UK economy doing better than expected and cable looking distinctly perky.
Let's hope we can distance ourselves from the EU when the reset happens.
GBP / USD Daily
Australia
Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations February 2025
It's all election talk in Australia, and there are really no good choices.
Australia to Enact Tax Breaks for Critical Minerals and Hydrogen [Bloomberg]
Chalmers instructs banks to loosen home loan rules for HECS debts [AFR]
What's Next ?
Can the EU muster a response to the Trump / Vance attack? I noticed that Starmer is in the conversation. Surely Brexit happened?
RBA could cut on Tuesday but I doubt they have the nerve.
Otherwise it's all about geopolitics.
This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]
![This Week's Important Economic Indicators [London time]](https://vip.suberia.capital/hs-fs/hubfs/16022025/indicators.jpg?width=658&height=521&name=indicators.jpg)
