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Economic Indicators Released Friday
Lots of important data from Friday that didn't get the press it deserved, Trump hogging the headlines again
Equities ended a quietish session a bit lower, in thin markets.
US Equities
Backlash in Washington as Trump leaves Putin summit empty-handed [FT]
Trump Says Up to Zelenskiy to Make Deal After Summit With Putin [Bloomberg]
Trump to Hold Off Hiking China Tariffs Over Russia Oil Purchases [Bloomberg]
Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of China chip sales to US [BBC]
Last week we wrote about risk assets at base camp, waiting for a move higher, against all the opinions of the experts. But what is it apart from trend-following algorithms that is going to make it happen? The answer is liquidity.
Much is being made of the contraction of the FED's Reverse Repo Facility (RRP). Since COVID this facility has soaked up all of the extra money being created out of thin air. It's ended up with banks and they've been lending it back to the FED at the highest rate on the entire yield curve. No wonder banks are strong currently.
Since the beginning of 2023, however, the RRP has been drained, which coincided with the bottom of equity markets.
FED's Reverse Repo Facility
All that excess liquidity has been sucked out of the RRP and into stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto etc.
All this in spite of the FED winding down it's balance sheet (yes, that's how the money got into the system in the first place) i.e taking money out of the system by letting treasury purchases mature i.e getting their principal back. In fact all major central banks are shrinking their balance sheets at a record pace.
FED Balance Sheet
M2 is a measure of how much money exists in the system. Specifically M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes M1 (currency in circulation, traveler's checks, and demand deposits) plus savings accounts, money market accounts, and small-denomination time deposits (under $100,000). As below, a huge increase during COVID, then a drawdown, but now re-accelerating to where it is today.
US Seasonally Adjusted M2
How is this extra money being created? The only place it can come from is the Treasury General Account.
The TGA is is an account maintained by the United States Department of the Treasury at the Federal Reserve. It receives tax payments and proceeds from the auction of Treasury securities, and disburses government payments to individuals and businesses.
The TGA account balance is below and it's been pretty static recently.
Treasury General Account
Every week the US Treasury auctions more and more debt. And it's been buying it's own debt! So the money comes in from auctions and goes out to buy bonds and into the banking system. And it goes out to pay interest on existing debt, and all the other obligations of the US.
So right now, the US Treasury has been propping up risk assets, stabilising bond markets. This is fiscal dominance, Government distorting free markets.
But can it continue?
Has Anybody Noticed That US M2 Is Hitting All-Time Highs? [Zerohedge]
Gold failed in it's third attempt to break higher but support is near.
Silver too, finds itself in no man's land immediately.
And a bear flag forming in oil after a massive drop in price.
A double top for Bitcoin after a couple of days of volatility. No follow through to the downside though.
A whole array of liquidity events as lenders/owners/investors have to distribute the haircut between themselves.
US Economic Indicators
PPI pushed the focus back to tariffs, something the markets have been ignoring. So is it transitory? The FED says no, because inflation after COVID turned out not to be transitory. We'll find out soon.
Fed's current monetary policy stance is 'exactly where we want to be,' official says [Fox Business]
Lumber Prices Have Tumbled This Month [Wall St Journal]
China Economic Indicators
The official figures show an economy still slowing with massive debt issues.
Thus far, bond yields have fallen, driven by flight to quality and deflation. They are beginning to move up and that's a worry.
China 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
China’s Economy Slows Sharply as Trade War Bites [Bloomberg]
China Mulls Asking Firms Run by Central Government to Buy Homes [Bloomberg]
Japan Economic Indicators
Inflation now coming down across the many Japanese indicators and the economy growing slightly. Can someone tell MoF and BoJ as they're the only ones not paying attention to their own numbers.
And bond yields are still rising.
Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
EU Economic Indicators
Economy seemed to have bottomed out but sentiment is very low and getting worse and Industrial Production has suddenly become a problem.
Not that it's a problem fro the EURO which is seeing capital being allocated from within the US, as a diversification away from Trump.
UK Economic Indicators
Positive news for the UK economy as GDP beats expectations as does employment change.
The bounce in Cable is good with a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern forming.
Canada Economic Indicators
A British Columbia Supreme Court ruling has declared Aboriginal title over approximately 800 acres of land in Richmond, British Columbia, including private property. This decision, described as a "bombshell" judgment, could have significant implications for private landowners and the broader landscape of property rights in the province, according to a post on X. The ruling specifically challenges the validity of existing property titles in the area. Interesting...
Having been the brunt of tariff journalism, USD/CAD has been messy. We can, at least now say be have a triple bottom at 1.3580 and we could be looking to break the minor resistance at 1.3820.
Australia Economic Indicators
The economic roundtable is Jim Chalmers’ chance for bold reform. Australians can’t afford anything less [The Guardian]
Less talk, more tax reform, roundtable attendees tell treasurer [AFR]
Federal budget faces billions of dollars of ‘funding cliffs’ [AFR]
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s third interest rate cut this year has helped galvanise a recovery in the value of homes across Sydney and Melbourne, which had been declining until Martin Place kicked off its monetary policy easing process. RBA’s third interest rate cut has triggered a new search for yield [AFR]
The boss of one of the world’s top energy companies is worried about costs and policy settings in Australia. Future expansions and investment are now off the table. Chevron boss warns ALP of fatal attraction slump [The Australian]
New Zealand recorded the most citizen departures in 13 years in the 12 months through June, reducing the net gain through immigration to the lowest in more than two and a half years. Many citizens have opted to look overseas — particularly to Australia — for better paying jobs amid a cooling economy and rising unemployment at home. New Zealand Sees Most Citizens Leave Since 2012 as Economy Cools [Bloomberg]
Washington bars US officials from Australia defence talks [ABC]
It's taken 4 months of a weak USD for AUD/USD to grind higher. Long term resistance is at 0.6600 and support at 0.6170. Something is going to have to break soon.
Jackson Hole The 2025 symposium is scheduled for August 21–23
With the July 29–30 FOMC meeting behind us and nothing else scheduled until mid-September, the August symposium stands out as a key platform for the Fed to communicate its near-term outlook.
Powell's speech on Friday is the highlight of a week lacking in US data.