Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
Markets are tense watching the US 10 year yield at 4.70%. US numbers were mixed ahead of the US holiday today and the fireworks of Nonfarm Payroll tomorrow.
In Europe more bad economic news from Germany as factory orders and retail sales plummet along with a recovery in PPI, following higher than expected CPI earlier in the week. The EU (like China) just can't catch a break currently and sentiment is super negative. Is it time to dust off the contrarian trade songsheet?
Germany Retail Sales November 2024
EU PPI November 2024
US Initial Jobless Claims
Australia Retail Sales November 2024
Breaking
Stimulus, what stimulus?
China CPI / PPI December 2024
Fed officials saw need for ‘careful approach’ to future rate cuts [FT]
Foreign Exchange
Currencies are reversing the Trump tariff weakening of stance. Here's the Aussie. Bull trap anyone?
AUD / USD Daily
It's similar in GDP / USD, USD / CAD, EURO / USD but worse in CNH or CNY
USD / CNH Daily
Equities
All the fun is in bonds and FX today but notable in equities was NVIDIA top may be in.
Bonds
Bonds continue to sell off even with 10 year treasuries steady. Gilts were the star performers.
UK 10 Year Gilt Yield Daily
Treasury Auction Draws Highest Yield Since 2007 in Bond Selloff [Bloomberg]
Precious Metals
Gold looking better and Silver approaching decision time. Maybe NFP may give direction but doubt it as who can believe the numbers anyway. 20 Jan would seem to be a better judgement day.
Crypto
Has Bank of America adopted XRP for internal transactions. X post suggests in has: https://x.com/digitalassetbuy/status/1877163822269542466 [X]
Interesting
Bank of England to further relax rules for banks and insurers
"The Bank of England’s top financial supervisor has announced new plans to ease the burden of its rules on banks and insurers, saying this can be done without unleashing “a race to the bottom” on financial regulation.
Sam Woods, chief executive of the BoE’s Prudential Regulation Authority, told a House of Lords committee that financial resilience and economic competitiveness “go hand in hand” as he outlined new moves to meet government demands for it to support economic growth.
He said the PRA would free up insurers to invest quicker by allowing retrospective authorisation of investments. It will also outline plans this year to cut reporting requirements for banks, after reducing them for insurers by a third."
Economic Indicators Today
- Australia trade balance
- China CPI & PPI
- Germany industrial production
- EU retail sales
- US holidays
