Ian Reynolds
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Breaking
Overnight
I won't say the T word today.
ECB cuts
- Deposit Facility Rate now 2.5%
- Disinflation on track to target
- 2% inflation on sustained basis
- Wage growth moderating
- Rates are becoming "meaningfully less restrictive"
- Data dependent / meeting by meeting
Economic Indicators Released Overnight
Mixed data as weekly claims drop but continuing jobless claims up. Some talk of Canada / Mexico tariffs being delayed / altered.
Equities lower as new AI technologies (even newer than Deepseek) look to disrupt the incumbents.
World Equities
Bitcoin
It's Strategic Reserve Day today, along with Nonfarm Payroll. BTC weathered the further selling in equities.
BITCOIN / USD Daily
Commodities
Oil looking super heavy as OPEC members increase output. The false break higher will have drawn in longs now out of the money with stops below 69.00.
SPOT BRENT CRUDE / USD Daily
Bonds
JGB yields have burst higher but they are only 1.5% still. CPI in Japan is way higher. As higher yields support the currency aren't we just waiting for the breakdown in USD / YEN to happen? Any carry trades still around will blow up, making a really quick move possible
Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
Foreign Exchange
This is the monthly chart where head and shoulders top break lower is possible. The candle that hits the neckline could hit anytime making the target potentially lower still.
USD / YEN Monthly
Equities
Despite all the FUD the NASDAQ still hasn't broken long-term support.
NASDAQ Daily
Interesting
Economic Indicators Today
