Limit Up!

Limit Up! 6th February 2025

Written by Ian Reynolds | Feb 6, 2025 2:52:05 AM

Overnight

Indicators Released Overnight

Slightly stronger ADP data and more optimistic purchasing managers.

3 key events happened overnight

  • US Quarterly Treasury Refunding 
  • US Govt starts breaking leases on 7,500 properties
  • Gold market beginning to turn illiquid

Quarterly Treasury Refunding 

US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement:
Coupon Auction Sizes Left Unchanged--guidance is to main sizes for "at least the next several quarters." 6mo Bill to become benchmark starting in Feb."

This gave the treasury market comfort. Scott Bessent taking a measured approach but beginning to move duration of issuance out. Big bond rally greeted the announcement.

US Govt starts breaking leases on 7,500 properties

An email sent from GSA headquarters in Washington instructed regional managers to begin terminating leases on roughly 7,500 federal offices nationwide

The General Services Administration (GSA), an Independent Agency of the U.S. Government which supports the Basic Function of all other Federal Agencies, with Products, Communication, Transportation, and Office Space, while managing over $500 Billion in U.S. Federal Property, as well as a 215,000 Motor Pool; is reportedly planning to sell upward of 50% of the 363 Million Square Feet of Office Space in 8,397 Buildings, leased and owned by them for Federal Agencies across the United States.

Gold market beginning to turn illiquid

1 week Gold leasing rates have spiked to 10% from a typical 2 or 3%. Gold stock in Asia has been cleared out, and the Bank of England has an 8 week waiting time. 

US gold rush drives up borrowing costs for precious metal in London [FT]


 

Breaking

Yields drop across the board as markets now have the luxury of dealing with someone that actually know what he's doing.

US 10 Year Government Bond Yield

Commercial Real Estate

CRE needed US Govt selling buildings and breaking leases like it needs a hole in the head.

Equities

Google disappoints as it continues to investing in AI, despite very little adoption.

Alphabet A Shares Daily

Foreign Exchange

USD weakness and BoJ rate hike talk speeds up YEN appreciation

USD / YEN Daily

BOJ's Tamura makes his case again for faster interest rate hikes [ForexLive]

Bitcoin

Big move coming as wedge forms within the widening megaphone.

Bitcoin / USD Daily

Banks Want to Crash the Bitcoin Party. Trump Is Opening the Door [Barrons]

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. plans to revise bank guidelines for crypto, aiming to allow banks to embark on some crypto activities without getting regulatory permission first. Some banks have met with government officials to push for offering custody of crypto assets, along with “tokenized deposits” that could put some checking accounts on blockchains, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Precious Metals

Gold beginning to go parabolic suggests something in the financial system is breaking, but also warns that price cannot keep doing this without a big correction. 

Gold / USD Daily

Economic Indicators Today