Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
Economic Indicators Released Overnight
US PMIs showing that the continued uncertainty has now pushed purchasing managers to be fearful where they were brave a few months ago.
A sea of red for risk assets with Gold and Bitcoin better performers.
- S&P - 4.8%
- NASDAQ -5.9%
- Dow Jones -3.9%
- FTSE -1.5%
- Nikkei - 2.7%
- Gold -0.6%
- Silver -6%
- WTI -7.1%
- BTC -2.6%
Most worrying is oil down 7% and Silver down 6%, key indicators of global economic strength.
So markets got tariff certainty but that in itself presented far greater uncertainty in outcome for the global economy and pushes the chance of a global recession, or worse, much higher.
The signal that all markets are looking for is the FED to add liquidity to stabilise prices. There are 3 FED speakers today including Powell, and traders will be dissecting every word he says.
Nonfarm Payroll just adds to the volatility.
World Equities
Breaking
EU ready to retaliate against Donald Trump’s tariffs, says Ursula von der Leyen [FT]
Equities
Despite the price action the NASDAQ is not at the 20% bear market mark yet. Although we may get there by the end of the week!
NASDAQ Daily
Bitcoin
BTC still weathering the storm. At what point does money come out of tech stocks and into Bitcoin? When the FED announces QE.
BITCOIN / USD Daily
Commodities
The most important chart at the moment. The monthly descending wedge in oil has closed below the support. There's still a lot of April left but there's a yawning gap down to the low twenties below.
SPOT BRENT Monthly
Initial sell off was short lived for Gold and, as equities bottomed out, Gold moved back up
GOLD / USD Daily
Bonds
Bond rallied everywhere as recession fears heightened. Yields down 8% in JGBs was huge and tells us BoJ won't be able to tighten anytime soon. 
Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
Foreign Exchange
USD continuation down to the target around 100.00
DXY Daily
Interesting
China is sensibly having a holiday today, 3 FED speakers, Nonfarm payroll
Economic Indicators Today
