Limit Up! 30th April 2025

Ian Reynolds April 30, 2025

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Overnight

Economic Indicators Released Overnight

In the US fewer job openings, consumer confidence lower again and GDPNow predicting -2.7% in Q1 had markets on the back foot again. US GDP and PCE tonight will give us a better picture.

Thin markets enabled stocks to close in positive territory but markets remain nervous.

US Equities

Breaking

Despite Trump's promised cuts, U.S. spent about $220 billion more in first 100 days than last year [CBS News]

UK-US trade talks 'moving in a very positive way', says White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt [Yahoo! News]

Europe fears Trump preparing to walk away from Ukraine talks [FT]

Exclusive: Pakistan defence minister says military incursion by India is imminent [Reuters]

Commodities

Oil continues downwards with no recent support. $35 or maybe down to the low of $15 from COVID. Easy to locate stop loss should make this one of the easier to understand trades for the next few months.

SPOT BRENT Daily

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to weather all storms but can't rally even with all the country, state, company adoption being promised. Probably a good thing.

BITCOIN / USD Daily

Equities

The NASDAQ continues to grind higher towards the scene of the crime at 20,600.

NASDAQ Daily

Bonds

Treasuries rallied in front of the Quarterly Refunding Announcement [US Treasury]. It's the breakdown into bills, coupons etc that we need to know.

"During the April – June 2025 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $514 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $850 billion.^[2],^[3] The borrowing estimate is $391 billion higher than announced in February 2025, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance and projected lower net cash flows, partially offset by lower Federal Reserve System Open Market Account (SOMA) redemptions ($60 billion). Excluding the lower than assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is $53 billion lower than announced in February."

US 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily