Limit Up! 26th February 2025

Links

Daily LinkedIn | Weekly LinkedIn | Next event | Check out the website

Overnight

Economic Indicators Released Overnight

Markets crashed (everything went down) as consumer confidence in the US plummets. German GDP confirms recession there and probably EU as well going forward.

FED speakers are now preparing us for QE by mentioning what that would look like when they have to do it.

Logan Favors Short-Term Assets When Fed Purchases Resume [Bloomberg]

Bessent is firmly in the driving seat of fiscal policy now and that's a good thing. This is what he said yesterday:

• Tariffs are the essential component in strategy, and can increase US industrial capacity.
• Tariffs are an important source of revenue, and and can help manage imbalances in other economies.
• I am paying particular attention to the 10-year treasury yield, I believe Trump's policies should reduce it.
• Term premiums should contract as the market gains confidence in the long-term fiscal profile of the US government.
• The government debt plan well is positioned for several quarters.
• China is likely to continue to add to its economic imbalances.
• China really needs more consumption.
• We will examine China's non-tariff barriers and currency policies in reciprocal tariffs analysis.
• Trump wants to diversify the sourcing and processing of critical minerals, Australia can play a role.
• Government jobs don't generate real long-term wage growth.
• I aim to reduce spending and ease monetary policy at the same time.
• Bank regulations have pushed borrowing to an unregulated financial system but does not see a stability problem.
• I advocate for a 3% fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio.
• I will come up with a list of industries that need to have secure supply chains including chips and medicines.

It's good to have someone that knows what they're doing in charge of fiscal. Now what shall we do with the FED...

Breaking

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: I aim to reduce spending and ease monetary policy at the same time [FXStreet]

Bank of Korea cuts rates to bolster growth, lowers GDP forecast [Reuters] 

Precious Metals

Even Gold took a hammering last night but has bounced back a bit.

GOLD / USD Daily

Bonds

A big rally in bonds drives the 10 year yield below 4.3%

US 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily

Foreign Exchange

The USD a bit weaker as the head and shoulders top rules the chart with short term target of 103.20

DXY Daily

Bitcoin

A definitive break of support as lots of leveraged accounts had to sell. Not much support until 75,000 but let's wait and see where this daily candle closes as a bear trap is a possibility.

BITCOIN / USD Daily

Equities

Stocks now revising the strength of the US economy. No real data point, but company guidance and job losses, along with low consumer confidence and retail fully long, may lead to a correction if not more.

World Equities

NASDAQ Daily

Interesting

Economic Indicators Today