Limit Up! 25 April 2025

Ian Reynolds April 25, 2025

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Overnight

Economic Indicators Released Overnight

Sentiment in Germany is improving as it's leaders are emboldened by less US bullying in the future. Even talk of the EU as the flight-to-safety currency now that clearly it's not the USD (had every trader in the world rolling in the aisles).

Durable goods huge number was US consumers front-loading tariffs. This means future numbers will look even worse when they arrive.

Otherwise Trump busted for lying about China trade adds to the uneasiness now being felt by company CEOs, Wall St and Main St (lowest approvals rating of any president after 100 day in office).

Markets glided up helped by good tech stock results (particularly Google).

Gold, BTC and USTs plus USD tell us that we're not in a bull market for equities no matter how much retail loves to buy the dip.

Have a hunch there is an unforeseen event or news about to happen. It maybe outright war between India and Pakistan.

US EQUITIES

Breaking

China to lift sanctions on MEPs in bid to revive trade deal with EU [FT]

Corporate America puts Wall Street on alert over damage from trade war [FT]

China Commerce Ministry: There haven't been trade negotiations between China and US [Forexlive]

UK and EU to finalise plans for defence pact [FT]

Commodities

Oil in a bear flag, is an important indicator for the health of the global economy.

SPOT BRENT Daily

Bitcoin

BTC consolidating but looking to form a hammer on today's candle. Confirmation will signal a test of 95/96k and then run at 100k.

BITCOIN / USD Daily

Equities

S&P better than NASDAQ as it's hit the COVID correction line already. Exactly where we are now is the pivot point between resuming the sell-off and squeezing higher. Only above 58,000 is where a bull market is confirmed.

S&P 500 Daily