Ian Reynolds
Suberia Capital
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Overnight
Economic Indicators Released Overnight
Markets took a positive tone overnight as Trump backed down on China and Powell.
The administration is now deflecting attention with talk about IMF, World Bank and new payment systems.
AND
Talk from Hegseth about "defending Taiwan: it's tariff talk.
AND
Further disintegration of the leading actors.
This is a bear market in equities and bonds. Don't let the sharp rallies fool you.
US Equities
Breaking
'WWE in the West Wing:' Elon Musk got into a screaming match with Scott Bessent [Yahoo! News]
China invites European countries to form united front against Trump tariffs [South China Morning Post]
Trump administration says IMF, World Bank ‘falling short’ of missions [Washington Post]
Trump signs executive order to modernize Treasury payment system [Reuters]
Commodities
Gold down 3%, Silver up 3%. You don't see that too often An overbought Gold market with Gold: Silver ratio at 100 and precious metals traders switch to Silver. Better economic backdrop so makes sense.
GOLD / USD Daily
Bitcoin
Still positive on BTC. Was expecting a pullback but we're still at the highest point since March. There's a lot of overhead resistance so best guess is some consolidation between 90 and 95k
BITCOIN / USD Daily
Equities
Bulls will tell everyone to buy the dip, but we're still waiting for something to happen.
Market is just trading headlines and maybe NASDAQ now starting a consolidation period. I call it a bear flag.
NASDAQ Daily
Bonds
The most important chart is currently not telling us much except that any relief rallies in price have, so far, been unable to break yield through the support line. Danger above 4.5% where markets go illiquid.
US 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
Foreign Exchange
Fascinating chart. Aussie couldn't get above the head and shoulders peak so TA wise still bearish. USD a bit higher this morning and price below 0.6300 could see a run back to the lows.
AUD / USD Daily
Interesting
Donald Trump says he has ‘no intention’ of firing Jay Powell [FT]
Tech replaces globalization as job threat, says Goldman’s Kaplan [investing.com]
Economic Indicators Today
