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Economic Indicators Released Overnight
Canada's Industrial PPI came in higher than expected as did the YoY raw materials price index. Not much else date wise but that didn't stop Gold, Silver and Equities rallying hard, with Bitcoin being a distinct under-performer.
Mass protests in Italy as Gaza becomes a problem Trump doesn't want.
China's foreign minister says admitting Palestinian state to UN is move to rectify injustice [Reuters]
Japan to reject Palestinian state recognition at UN to avoid ‘annoying’ Trump [South China Morning Post]
Supreme Court decision on Trump’s firing of Cook looms over the Fed [FT]
Big sell-off as those weak hands looking for an immediate blow-off top are forced to capitulate. Lots of nonsense like an important announcement from US today, had market off-balance. Plenty of Eth selling as well.
I have toned the inverse head and shoulders down for now. A great downside target would be 102k where trend support meets 200 day moving average. If you’re short now and can go long at 102k that would give you a nice buffer to sit back and wait for the cycle top.
If we don’t go down that far, 108.3k as a low would have a good symmetry for a W shaped bottom.
Silver hits first take profit target. Scaling out at $44, $48 and then leaving a small position for an extreme move. Idea would be to sell the final amount at the top of a bounce-back after the blow-off top collapses. That’s why it’s a small position - almost impossible to execute. A close and confirm below $41 would negate the upside potential.
Looking for some consolidation immediately but retail now taking note. Revolut, Robinhood etc make it easy for Mom & Pop to participate. Maybe Bitcoin’s final run for this cycle comes after the Silver top.
Price didn’t confirm below 15 year trend line and yesterday’s action pulled back to the line at 96.80. DXY is the the market mover currently so we look for guidance.
Only PMIs out today so geopolitics could be price mover.
Market has been digesting the first FED cut for 4 days now and we have 4 up days in yield. 4.20% looks like an easy upside prediction, with a close below 4.03% negating.
(Dare I say) fundamentally it looks like we may have a low in long term rates, assuming no yield curve control or similar. Central banks can keep cutting short rates but, for heavily indebted nations like US, UK, Japan, France, Germany etc, maybe long rates can’t get much lower.
This would be favourable for floating-rate mortgages, banks as they can lend long and borrow short and governments as they can roll-over short-term debt cheaply. And it should be a stable outcome.
US 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
A break of the short-term trend to the upside but resistance is at hand.
It’s been a 15 day move higher from short-term trend support. There are a lot of short positions, probably via puts, that need to be washed out so we could jump higher if they puke.
A reversal close below 22,300 would probably take us back to the trend support at 21,700 or so.
Switzerland in fresh push to woo Trump on tariffs [FT]
UK watchdog speeds up crypto approvals in response to critics [FT]