Limit Up! 1st September 2025

Overnight

Chinese PMIs over the weekend will be hailed as positive, but in reality nothing's changed

Rumours of Trump being dead or having a heart attack pervade social media but not markets.

Riots in Indonesia 
Over the weekend of August 29-31, 2025, Indonesia experienced widespread violent protests across multiple cities, including Jakarta, Surabaya, Makassar, Bandung, and Bali, marking the most significant unrest during President Prabowo Subianto’s nearly year-long presidency. The protests, initially sparked by public outrage over lavish parliamentary housing allowances (50 million rupiah/month, ~$3,075, nearly 10 times Jakarta’s minimum wage), were fueled by broader economic grievances, including rising unemployment, inflation, low wages, high taxes, and perceived government corruption. Tensions escalated after a 21-year-old motorcycle taxi driver, Affan Kurniawan, was killed on August 28 by a police armored vehicle during a protest in Jakarta, prompting nationwide calls for police reform and justice.Key developments:

• Violence and Destruction: Protesters set fire to regional parliament buildings in Makassar, West Nusa Tenggara, Pekalongan, and Cirebon, with three deaths reported in Makassar due to a fire trapping council staff. Looting targeted lawmakers’ homes, including that of a NasDem party member in Jakarta. Demonstrators threw rocks, Molotov cocktails, and fireworks, while police responded with tear gas, water cannons, and military deployments.
• Government Response: President Prabowo canceled a planned trip to China to address the crisis, called for calm, and ordered a transparent investigation into Kurniawan’s death, with seven police officers detained for ethics violations. On August 31, the government agreed to cut lawmakers’ allowances in response to protester demands.
• Economic Context: Indonesia faces economic challenges, with the IMF warning of the region’s highest unemployment rate in 2025 and a struggling export-driven economy amid global trade disruptions.
• Social Media and Public Sentiment: TikTok suspended its live feature in Indonesia to curb disinformation, which authorities claim fuelled unrest. Public frustration also reflects distrust in Prabowo’s administration, given his military past and concerns over democratic backsliding.

The protests, involving students, workers, and ride-hailing drivers, represent a critical test for Prabowo’s leadership, with potential for further escalation if economic and political grievances remain unaddressed.

The familiar story of persistent currency devaluation. This could easily go the way of Turkey, India, Argentina..the list goes on.

Breaking

Trump demand for Japan to buy more US rice snagged trade talks, Nikkei says [Reuters]

Bitcoin

BTC survived the weekend but looking weak again this morning.

BITCOIN/USD Daily

Commodities

Investors beware as Gold is on the move again after 3 months of consolidation. Some central banks now hold more Gold than US Treasuries and there are massive amount of physical deliveries on COMEX. Note the $1BN block trade on .GLD last week.

GOLD/USD Monthly

Bonds

US yield curve continues to steepen as short rates fall. 30 year yields are not following.

US 30 Year Government Bond Yield Daily

Foreign Exchange

My 10 day old Cable chart is making me look like Nostradamus as right shoulder falls into place.

GBP/USD Daily

Equities

Equity futures higher after the sell-off on Friday. Will be quiet as holidays in US and Canada.

US Equity Futures

Economic Indicators Today