Limit Up! 18th July 2025

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Overnight

Economic Indicators Released Overnight

A mess of data overnight 

• Weak Australian Employment Report highlights RBA out of sync with their own data
• UK employment also weak
• EU CPI bang on consensus
• US Initial Jobless Claims and Retail Sales suggest economy not doing as badly as some predict

Beige Book confirmed this;

• Tariff-driven price pressures: All 12 Federal Reserve districts report notable input cost increases—especially in raw materials for manufacturing and construction—driven by tariffs (some up to 50% on imported steel). Many businesses are passing these costs on to consumers; others are absorbing them, squeezing margins.

• Sentiment shift on inflation: Price inflation remained moderate, but contacts expect rising costs to intensify through summer, potentially translating into consumer price increases later.

• Mixed growth outlook: Economic activity edged higher overall from May to early July. However, growth remains flat or softly declining in many districts, with widespread caution on future expansion.

• Labor market & wages: Employment trends vary—some districts report flat or slight declines, along with hiring freezes or shifts reductions. Wages continue modest growth, with some upward pressure due to higher living costs. 

• Uncertainty easing: Mentions of “uncertainty” dropped from 80 in June to 63, indicating that while anxiety over trade policy and the economy remains, it is a bit reduced.

Equities, of course, cheered.

US Equities

Breaking

Fed’s Williams says tariffs are pushing up inflation, and he expects even higher prices in coming months [MarketWatch]

The Fed Building Renovation at the Heart of Trump’s Efforts to Oust Powell [Wall St Journal]

Bitcoin

Perfect price action as rebound from revisiting the scene of the crime looks to spike higher, supported by all the positive news from The White House and more potential buyers in the future (401k).

BITCOIN/USD Daily

Commodities

Similar for Silver as price looking to break the $39 resistance again.

SILVER/USD

Foreign Exchange

Aussie having net ground higher this year looks to break lower (again!). Evidence clear now that RBA wrong to hold rates and the longer they hold, the lower rates are going to have to go.

AUD/USD Daily

Equities

NASDAQ pushing into resistance as bull market continues. It's all semiconductors.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE Daily

Economic Indicators Today