Ian Reynolds
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Overnight
Scott Bessent hits the wires saying that April 2 is the day that reciprocal tariffs would be in place and watch until 30 June to see if agreements could be put in place to mutually reduce them.
Markets focused on whether the FED will end QT on Wednesday "when reserve balances are above the level it judges to be consistent with ample reserves". This from the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserves's Balance Sheet, May 2022.
This doesn't make much sense but for sure gives them any opportunity to stop QT. And of course they're preparing for QE by buying bills rather than coupons, as Lorie Logan mentioned last week.
China Unemployment Rate February 2025
China has been under the radar recently but you can rest assured that they have been stimulating the economy like crazy. But they haven't cut rates since October.
M2 is still growing strongly at 7% YoY
China Money Supply M2
Breaking
Bessent Not Worried About Market, Calls Corrections Healthy [Bloomberg]
Bitcoin
BTC still marking time, watching US equity markets. But the four year cycle high will be upon us soon..
BITCOIN / USD Daily
Precious Metals
Gold chilling just below 3,000. All eyes on the FED on Wednesday for the next direction.
GOLD / USD Daily
Bonds
Chinese bond yields backing up after the crazy drop recently. Stimulus seems to have pushed capital into stocks so maybe profit taking on bonds to reallocate.
China 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily
Foreign Exchange
Yuan relatively strong and the PBoC will be pleased that less intervention is needed every day to keep the peg in place.
USD / OFFSHORE YUAN
Equities
After a rollercoaster ride Chinese equities look to have confirmed on a higher level. But it's taken an awful lot of stimulus to get it here.
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE Daily
Interesting
Carney kills consumer carbon tax in first move as prime minister [CBC]
Economic Indicators Today
