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Economic Indicators Released Overnight
Powell and Bowman hit the wires and FED cuts are coming despite no data and strong GDP.
Breakdown of Powell's Speech 14 October 2025
“Economic activity has surprised to the upside”
“Fed may soon end Quantitative Tightening”
“Signs of gradual tightening of liquidity conditions”
“Alternative sources of data would not replace government statistics, which [are] the ‘gold standard’”
Bowman backed this up;
Continues to anticipate interest rate cuts at the final two policy meetings of 2025, tariffs will have less impact on inflation.
Overall a mixed day for markets
US Equities
Fed’s Collins supports further rate cuts to protect labor market [investing.com]
Erosion of trust in central banks can boost inflation expectations, IMF warns [Reuters]
Powell signals support for more rate cuts as US job market cools [FT]
Oil tumbles to five-month low on report of ‘large surplus’ [FT]
IMF says Bank of England should be 'very cautious' on future rate cuts [Reuters]
For 4 days out of 5 the 109k support has held, but rallies seem to get nowhere. With leverage flushed out and whales shorting, sentiment is low. Read more
6% price movement yesterday as the relentless buying met sellers big time at $53.50. For sure the selling was big and consistent and drove price back to $50.50 before the sellers backed off. Read more
Short-term pennant has to break one way or the other in the next few days. It’s not going to be US economic data so we’ll leave it to Trump to determine the immediate direction. Read more
Stock markets were broadly neutral yesterday with S&P and NASDAQ underperforming the other indexes. But price did test resistance and held first support level at 6,550. Read more
Yield now dropping to challenge that 4% double bottom. A slow grind down to the low of Trump 2.0 at 3.85 or will FED meeting on October 29 push rates higher like they have to Gilts when the Bank of England have cut recently? Read more
US 10 Year Government Bond Yield Daily